Transmission of COVID-19 in Cities with Weather Conditions of High Air Humidity: Lessons Learned from Turkish Black Sea Region to Face Next Pandemic Crisis

Abstract

The goal of this study is to analyze associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological indicators in cities of the Black Sea region of Turkey, located specifically in the dampest area, with excess rainfall and recurring fog. In particular, the working hypothesis is that the widespread transmission of new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (leading to the airborne disease COVID-19) in cities can be explained by specific weather conditions, namely high levels of air humidity. Statistical evidence here does not seem, in general, to support the hypothesis that the accelerated transmission of COVID-19 in the studied cities can be explained by high levels of humidity because different meteorological, environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors also plays a critical role in the disease transmission dynamics of the investigated region. The main implications of our findings here are that the demographic structure of the population, climate indicators, organization of the health system, and environmental factors (e.g., air pollution, etc.) should be considered through a systemic approach when designing effective national and regional pandemic plans directed to implement health policies for facing new variants of COVID-19 and/or new airborne diseases, in order to reduce their negative effects on health, social and economic systems.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

“…Morocco therefore adopted an early, strict containment strategy to prevent straining their limited health care system. Policies included suspension of public events, suspension of international travel, and restrictions on intercity travel [ 18 , 21 , 25 , 90 , 91 ]. Additionally, the government created a “COVID-19 Fund,” which provided funding to increase hospital beds and intensive care unit capacity, purchase personal protective equipment, and increase testing capabilities [ 92 ].…”

“…Additionally, disease control measures and their effects on medical, social, and economic well-being have been further studied in the interval period, with new emphasis on clear guidelines and effective communication strategies [ 18 , 19 ]. In parallel, there was increased focus on risk factors for COVID-19 infection and mortality, ranging from personal risk factors such as age and medical comorbidities to air pollution, climate, and population density [ 18 , 25 - 27 ]. The vast breadth and depth of new knowledge related to COVID-19 and public health gained in the past 2 years underscore the need for new analysis with updated data and historical context.…”

Effective health systems facing pandemic crisis: lessons from COVID-19 in Europe for next emergencies

“…The negative effects of the novel coronavirus were initially countered by countries through a variety of non-pharmaceutical measures of control (e.g., lockdown, social distance, facemask wearing, etc. ; cf., Akan and Coccia, 2022, 2023; Coccia, 2021c, d, e, 2022a) and basic health interventions and policies based on testing and monitoring of infected individuals and COVID-19 treatment guidelines considering the lack in 2020 of effective drugs and other treatments (Benati and Coccia, 2022a). From the initial pandemic wave of COVID-19 in 2020 to subsequent waves in 2023, there are differences in COVID-19 deaths and related infections between countries worldwide and also between European countries having similar health and inter-related socioeconomic systems (JHU, 2023; cf., Banik et al ., 2020).…”