Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study

Abstract

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. Methods According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China during January 10–February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies. Results The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067–87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16–6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350–61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567–2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020. Conclusions The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.

Fertility intentions among couples in Shanghai under COVID‐19: A cross‐sectional study

“…14 In addition, based on the government's timely disclosure of epidemic data, some participants felt anxious about the COVID-19 epidemic. 15,16 The study found that participants who were more concerned about their own health and that of their fetus were more likely to cancel their pregnancy, which may be related to the unknown impact of The present study has some limitations. First, due to the singlecenter study, the results of the study may lead to "Berkson's bias."…”

“…It seems possible that these results are due to the intrinsic characteristic of the Chinese who are used to saving money for use in emergencies 14 . In addition, based on the government’s timely disclosure of epidemic data, some participants felt anxious about the COVID‐19 epidemic 15,16 …”

Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic: a systematic review

“…Seven studies evaluated the actual effect of comprehensive control measures. Control measures in Wuhan reduced the effective reproductive number from 3.1 to 0.5 [ 35 ] , while control measures in China avoided 96% cases in China (except Wuhan) [ 29 ] and 99.85% (58 613 197) cases in mainland China [ 36 ] . In Italy, control measures reduced 649 000 averted cases (95% CI, 481 000–1 010 000) in total [ 32 ] .…”

Newborn care during the COVID‐19 pandemic must adapt as evidence accumulates

“…8 Two more similar case reports have found transmission of RNA detected by PCR, although none of these studies attempted to grow the virus in culture in order to establish the presence of infectious virus. 9,10 Thus, with the current state of our knowledge, all efforts should be made to provide breastmilk if possible. If the mothers' condition allows, breastfeeding may be considered with certain minimum precautions including use of a face mask during nursing, careful hand and breast hygiene and maintaining appropriate distancing when not feeding.…”