Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

Abstract

text:An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that R t decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of R t reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship. Abstract: 73 Main: 2048 2 Abstract: An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that R t decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of R t reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.

Transmission routes of Covid-19 virus in the Diamond Princess Cruise ship

“…non-close contact category), the predicted infection all occurred prior to Feb 5. The peak effective reproduction number on the ship was approximately 11 as predicted by Mizumoto and Chowell (2020), much higher than the mean estimates elsewhere of 1.7-7 (Mizumoto and Chowell, 2020). However, they also predicted a peak infection 1-2 days after Feb 5, which differs slightly from our predicted peak on Feb 3.…”

Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

“…The research on the domestic and international epidemics and the future development trend has become a hot topic of current research. At present, many teams have studied the transmission law and preventive measures of the COVID-19 (Corman et al, 2020;Hui et al, 2020;Rothe et al, 2020), and many meaningful results have been obtained (Mizumoto & Chowell, 2020;Riou & Althaus, 2020;Shao & Wu, 2020).…”

Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 and Impact on Public Health Policy

“…[34] have introduced a parametric excitation into the basic S-I-R model to study the effects of seasonal temperature variation on the spread of the epidemic. As alternative approaches to the modeling, we would like to cite References [35,36] which have used stochastic models to analyse the course of the disease in Wuhan and on the cruise ship Diamond Princess respectively. A mathematical analysis of the consequences of public health policy is Reference [37] which predicts the effects of various kinds of social distancing measures such as school closures and social isolation of the high-risk senior citizens.…”