Transmission rates and adaptive evolution of pathogens in sympatric heterogeneous plant populations

Gudelj, Ivana; Bosch, Frank van den; Gilligan, Christopher A.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2004.2837

Cited by 29 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This is reminiscent of branching found in an SI type model when density-dependent natural mortality is included (Svennungsen & Kisdi [45] which is an extension of Pugliese [46]; see also [47]). The result extends the range of disease models for which branching has been demonstrated; among which already are counted models incorporating density-dependent death [45,46], superinfection [48,49], 'specialist' parasitism [50][51][52] and selective predation [53]. When DDV evolves together with baseline virulence in our main model, however, and both population feedbacks have adaptive traits, mutual invasibility becomes impossible and no branching can occur.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

Seasonality selects for more acutely virulent parasites when virulence is density dependent

et al. 2013

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Host condition is often likely to influence parasite virulence. Furthermore, condition may often be correlated with host density, and therefore, it is important to understand the role of density-dependent virulence (DDV). We examine the consequences of DDV to the evolution of parasites in both seasonal and non-seasonal environments. In particular, we consider seasonality in host birth rate that results in a fluctuating host density and therefore a variable virulence. We show that parasites are selected for lower exploitation, and therefore lower transmission and virulence as the strength of DDV increases without seasonality. This is an important insight from our models; DDV has the opposite effect on the evolution of parasites to that of higher baseline mortality. Our key result is that although seasonality does not affect the evolution of virulence in classical models, with DDV parasites in seasonal environments are predicted to evolve to be more acute. This suggests that in more seasonal environments wildlife disease is likely to be more rather than less virulent if DDV is widespread.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

Seasonality selects for more acutely virulent parasites when virulence is density dependent

et al. 2013

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“…First, there should exist a trade-off between uptake efficiencies on the primary and secondary resource niches and second that this trade-off takes a convex form. The trade-off convexity implies decreasingly costly investment [33] whereby initial improvement in uptake efficiency on a given resource leads to substantial decrease in uptake efficiency on the alternative resource, with subsequent improvements taking place at little or no additional costs.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stability of Cross-Feeding Polymorphisms in Microbial Communities

et al. 2016

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Cross-feeding, a relationship wherein one organism consumes metabolites excreted by another, is a ubiquitous feature of natural and clinically-relevant microbial communities and could be a key factor promoting diversity in extreme and/or nutrient-poor environments. However, it remains unclear how readily cross-feeding interactions form, and therefore our ability to predict their emergence is limited. In this paper we developed a mathematical model parameterized using data from the biochemistry and ecology of an E. coli cross-feeding laboratory system. The model accurately captures short-term dynamics of the two competitors that have been observed empirically and we use it to systematically explore the stability of cross-feeding interactions for a range of environmental conditions. We find that our simple system can display complex dynamics including multi-stable behavior separated by a critical point. Therefore whether cross-feeding interactions form depends on the complex interplay between density and frequency of the competitors as well as on the concentration of resources in the environment. Moreover, we find that subtly different environmental conditions can lead to dramatically different results regarding the establishment of cross-feeding, which could explain the apparently unpredictable between-population differences in experimental outcomes. We argue that mathematical models are essential tools for disentangling the complexities of cross-feeding interactions.

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“…Preliminary results show that evolutionary outcomes strongly depend on the shape of the trade-off curve between pathogen transmission on sympatric hosts (Gudelj et al 2004). Using methods based upon adaptive dynamics, it has been possible to determine criteria under which evolutionary branching occurs from a monomorphic into a dimorphic population, as well as the conditions that lead to the evolution of specialist (single host range) or generalist (multiple host range) pathogen populations (Gudelj et al 2004). Since some pathogen species can undergo 20-30 generations in a growing season, the consequences of this form of evolution may become apparent within decades.…”

Section: Crop Mosaics Heterogeneity and Topology Of Crops In The Lanmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…This can be investigated by analysing the evolutionary trade-offs that occur over successive generations of a pathogen exposed to two or more hosts. Preliminary results show that evolutionary outcomes strongly depend on the shape of the trade-off curve between pathogen transmission on sympatric hosts (Gudelj et al 2004). Using methods based upon adaptive dynamics, it has been possible to determine criteria under which evolutionary branching occurs from a monomorphic into a dimorphic population, as well as the conditions that lead to the evolution of specialist (single host range) or generalist (multiple host range) pathogen populations (Gudelj et al 2004).…”

Section: Crop Mosaics Heterogeneity and Topology Of Crops In The Lanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable agriculture and plant diseases: an epidemiological perspective

Gilligan

2007

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

141

127

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The potential for modern biology to identify new sources for genetical, chemical and biological control of plant disease is remarkably high. Successful implementation of these methods within globally and locally changing agricultural environments demands new approaches to durable control. This, in turn, requires fusion of population genetics and epidemiology at a range of scales from the field to the landscape and even to continental deployment of control measures. It also requires an understanding of economic and social constraints that influence the deployment of control. Here I propose an epidemiological framework to model invasion, persistence and variability of epidemics that encompasses a wide range of scales and topologies through which disease spreads. By considering how to map control methods onto epidemiological parameters and variables, some new approaches towards optimizing the efficiency of control at the landscape scale are introduced. Epidemiological strategies to minimize the risks of failure of chemical and genetical control are presented and some consequences of heterogeneous selection pressures in time and space on the persistence and evolutionary changes of the pathogen population are discussed. Finally, some approaches towards embedding epidemiological models for the deployment of control in an economically plausible framework are presented.

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Transmission rates and adaptive evolution of pathogens in sympatric heterogeneous plant populations

Cited by 29 publications

References 30 publications

Seasonality selects for more acutely virulent parasites when virulence is density dependent

Seasonality selects for more acutely virulent parasites when virulence is density dependent

Stability of Cross-Feeding Polymorphisms in Microbial Communities

Sustainable agriculture and plant diseases: an epidemiological perspective

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