Transport-Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: Evidence From Belt and Road

Abstract

The conundrum of how to balance economic growth with transportation carbon abatement has never been more vital for the Belt and Road countries. This study analyzes the Transport-Environmental Kuznets Curve nexus and explores the heterogeneity using fixed-effect estimation and panel data from 1981 to 2020 in 64 Belt and Road countries. The findings indicate that there is an N-shaped nexus between transport carbon emissions and economic growth. The environmental rebound effects in some Belt and Road countries are solidified from different perspectives and show a diamond-shaped lock-in feature. Moreover, most Belt and Road countries are still in the “climbing” stage and are struggling to reconcile economic growth with reducing transport carbon emissions. These conclusions have constructive policy implications for the Belt and Road countries at the various stages of “climbing,”“nearing or crossing the top,”“heading downhill,” and “rebounding” to advance the green transportation transformation strategy.