Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Abstract

This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to identify underexplored strategies for abating greenhouse gases (GHG) and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation. The project was designed to consolidate existing transportation energy knowledge, advance analytic capacity-building, and uncover opportunities for sound strategic action.Transportation currently accounts for 71% of total U.S. petroleum use and 33% of the nation's total carbon emissions. The TEF project explores how combining multiple strategies could reduce GHG emissions and petroleum use by 80%. Researchers examined four key areas -lightduty vehicles, non-light-duty vehicles, fuels, and transportation demand -in the context of the marketplace, consumer behavior, industry capabilities, technology and the energy and transportation infrastructure. The TEF reports support DOE long-term planning. The reports provide analysis to inform decisions about transportation energy research investments, as well as the role of advanced transportation energy technologies and systems in the development of new physical, strategic, and policy alternatives.In addition to the DOE and its Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, TEF benefitted from the collaboration of experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory, along with steering committee members from the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Transportation, academic institutions and industry associations. More detail on the project, as well as the full series of reports, can be found at http://www.eere.energy.gov/analysis/transportationenergyfutures. Contract Nos.

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

“…However, hydrogen is expected to play a key role in the future of shipping, with LNG and electricity to a lesser extent. Hydrogen-based ships may compete with other alternatively powered ships [36][37][38][39]. Hydrogen-powered ships can play a significant role in reducing shipping emissions [40].…”

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

“…Scenario trends to 2050 were developed using an internally consistent vehicle stock and fuel consumption analytic framework in a modified version of Argonne National Laboratory's VISION model (Argonne National Laboratory 2011). Inputs to this model were derived from a number of external sources as well as from modeling results described in other Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) reports (Grenzeback et al 2013;Plotkin et al 2013;Porter et al 2013;Ruth et al 2013;Vyas et al 2013). The following four scenarios were developed:…”

“…Demand in other transportation markets is assumed to be equal to the BAU scenario. This demand intensity reduction is based upon results from parallel reports on demand reduction conducted for the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) study (Grenzeback et al 2013;Vyas et al 2013). Aggressive energy intensity improvements in NLDV sectors have also been estimated for the TEF project (Vyas 2011) and are summarized in Figure 3.5.…”

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

“…The tonnage and number of freight shipments within the United States are increasing steadily as demand for consumer goods and other products grows and as manufacturers and retailers move from inventorybased to just-in-time supply chain and distribution systems (Grenzeback et al 2013). Freight transportation demand is typically measured in tons, ton-miles, and value (dollars) of goods moved by the freight sector.…”

“…12 The data are not directly comparable because of the differences in the dates and the underlying accounting and reporting procedures. However, the data provide a general indication of the relative importance of fuel costs in the operation of truck and rail services (Grenzeback et al 2013). For trucking, fuel costs in early 2010 accounted for 31% of marginal operating costs per mile; driver labor costs for 36%.…”