Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Abstract

This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to identify underexplored strategies for abating greenhouse gases (GHG) and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation. The project was designed to consolidate existing transportation energy knowledge, advance analytic capacity-building, and uncover opportunities for sound strategic action.Transportation currently accounts for 71% of total U.S. petroleum use and 33% of the nation's total carbon emissions. The TEF project explores how combining multiple strategies could reduce GHG emissions and petroleum use by 80%. Researchers examined four key areas -lightduty vehicles, non-light-duty vehicles, fuels, and transportation demand -in the context of the marketplace, consumer behavior, industry capabilities, technology and the energy and transportation infrastructure. The TEF reports support DOE long-term planning. The reports provide analysis to inform decisions about transportation energy research investments, as well as the role of advanced transportation energy technologies and systems in the development of new physical, strategic, and policy alternatives.In addition to the DOE and its Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, TEF benefitted from the collaboration of experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory, along with steering committee members from the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Transportation, academic institutions and industry associations. More detail on the project, as well as the full series of reports, can be found at http://www.eere.energy.gov/analysis/transportationenergyfutures. .................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................... 70 References ............................................................................................................................ EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFreight transportation modes-truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline-each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Options for Moving 18.5 Billion Tons of FreightTruck, rail, water, air, and pipeline services provide a spectrum of competitive and complementary freight transportation options, with each mode offering advantages and disadvantages in terms of price, speed, reliability, accessibility, visibility, secu...

Emissions and Air Quality Impacts of Truck-to-Rail Freight Modal Shifts in the Midwestern United States

“…We found 12 million tons of intraregional freight, and 530 million tons of all truck freight moving through the upper Midwest region per year, could be economically shifted off of truck and onto train, if adequate rail infrastructure existed, and policy incentives were structured to favor freight rail selection by shippers. Although a range of transportation policies could be structured to promote modal shifts from truck to rail, such policy development would depend on the value of benefits projected to society. Because diesel trucks contribute over 25% to NO x emissions in many urban areas, and impact near-road PM exposure, the air quality and human health impacts of freight modal shift are likely to be the most valuable of modal shift social benefits.…”

“…These include motor fuel taxes, tolls, carbon taxes (or other emission-based fees), further restrictions on permissible hours for truck drivers, reducing truck size and weight limits, and public investment in freight rail infrastructure. 2 Whether or not such policies and associated investments are worthwhile fundamentally depends on the public benefits achieved by moving freight by train versus truck. Several studies have proposed shifting away from trucks toward more fuel-efficient, nonhighway modes.…”

“…Modal-shift choices are made by individual shipping companies, but federal policy can incentivize a freight modal shift. A 2013 report by the Department of Energy highlighted particular policy strategies to provide disincentives for trucking in favor of rail. These include motor fuel taxes, tolls, carbon taxes (or other emission-based fees), further restrictions on permissible hours for truck drivers, reducing truck size and weight limits, and public investment in freight rail infrastructure .…”

“…A 2013 report by the Department of Energy highlighted particular policy strategies to provide disincentives for trucking in favor of rail. These include motor fuel taxes, tolls, carbon taxes (or other emission-based fees), further restrictions on permissible hours for truck drivers, reducing truck size and weight limits, and public investment in freight rail infrastructure . Whether or not such policies and associated investments are worthwhile fundamentally depends on the public benefits achieved by moving freight by train versus truck.…”

Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport

“…Therefore, the energy intensity value for trucks was obtained by dividing the 2016 total energy consumption for heavy-duty trucks by the total truck ton-miles provided by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics ( 26 ). Air energy intensity was calculated by using information (ratio of air energy intensity to truck energy intensity) obtained from a report on Transportation Energy Futures Series ( 27 ). The logistics cost parameters were computed based on information from U.S. business logistics costs ( 28 ) and total ton-miles by mode.…”