Determining the probability of survival after injury is important as it can inform triage, clinical research and audit. A number of methods have been reported for determining the probability of survival after injury. However, these have shortcomings and thus further developments are needed to improve their reliability and accuracy. In this study, a Bayesian method called Predictive Statistical Diagnosis (PSD) was developed to determine probability of survival in 4124 adults (age: mean = 67.9 years, standard deviation = 21.6 years) with traumatic brain injuries (TBI). In total, 86.2% of cases had survived and 13.8% of cases had not survived their injuries. The parameters considered as inputs to PSD were age, abbreviated injury score (AIS), Glasgow coma score (GCS), pulse rate (PR), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and respiration rate (RR). PSD statistically modeled the TBI cases and their associated injury outcomes, i.e., survived or not survived. The model was calibrated on randomly selected, roughly 2/3 (number 2676), of the cases and its performance was validated on the remaining cases (number 1448, i.e., validation dataset). The effectiveness of PSD in determining the probability of survival was compared with a method called Ps14 that uses regression modeling. With all parameters (i.e., age, AIS, GCS, SBP, RR and PR) included as inputs to PSD, it correctly identified 90.8% of survivors and 50.0% of non-survivors in the validation dataset while Ps14 identified 97.4% of survivors and 40.2% of non-survivors in the validation dataset. When age, AIS and GCS were used on their own as inputs to PSD, it correctly identified 82.4% of the survivors and 65.0% of non-survivors in the validation dataset. Age affected the performance of PSD in determining the survival outcomes. The number of non-surviving cases included in this study may have not been sufficiently high to indicate the full potential of PSD and a further study with a larger number of cases would be beneficial.Technologies 2018, 6, 41 2 of 16 scoring systems can be beneficial for [4,5]: (i) triage: a procedure to assess severity of medical condition for the purpose of setting treatment priority; (ii) prognostic evaluation: a procedure to support predication and management of injury outcomes and (iii) research: studies to compare patient groups on the basis of injury outcomes and assessing medical care and treatments. Trauma scoring systems can be classed as anatomical, physiological and combined. Anatomical scoring systems quantify the extent of individual anatomical injuries, taking into account the injury site by appropriate weightings (coefficients) however these weightings are often not known when the patient presents to hospital after a civilian trauma where most injury mechanisms are blunt (e.g., falls and road traffic collisions) [6]. Physiological scoring systems are based on cardiovascular, neurological and respiratory abnormalities. They provide mechanisms to determine the likelihood of mortality and inform triage; but can lack precision [6]. Combined...