Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since a.d. 1300

Stahle, David W.; Fye, Falko K.; Cook, Edward R.; Griffin, Daniel

doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9171-x

Cited by 192 publications

(178 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Many of these records provide evidence of past warm-season temperature variability and are located in near-tree-line regions at high-elevation or high-latitude sites (5,6). Long precipitationsensitive tree-ring chronologies are generally from lower latitudes and elevations (7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12).…”

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confidence: 99%

A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Yang

Qin

Wang

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

439

267

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An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.

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confidence: 99%

A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Yang

Qin

Wang

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

439

267

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Records collectively suggest a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than contained in instrumental records, particularly with respect to drought extent, duration, and severity. Several notable droughts extended across much of western North America, including severe and sustained droughts in the late 16th century and the medieval period, between 900-1300 AD (23)(24)(25). In this period, episodes of extensive severe drought are documented by a variety of proxy data, but most dramatically by evidence of trees rooted in lakes and river courses in the Sierra Nevada and northwestern Great Basin (26,27).…”

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confidence: 99%

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Woodhouse

Meko

MacDonald

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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342

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A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900-1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1°C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.climate change | water resources | paleoclimatology | medieval period C limate-change projections clearly indicate what observations already suggest: Temperatures everywhere will be warmer in the future due to anthropogenic activities. General circulation models (GCMs) project continued warming, with annual temperatures 3-5°C above current levels by the end of the century (1). As previous articles in this Special Feature have discussed, warming temperatures, even without reductions in precipitation, will have far-reaching impacts on hydrologic sustainability in the Southwest. Twenty-first century droughts will occur under warmer temperatures with greater rates of evapotranspiration than occurred during the major droughts of the 20th century. Warming may also directly and indirectly increase the propensity for droughts in the Southwest (2-4). However, major 20th century droughts pale in comparison to droughts documented in paleoclimatic records over the past two millennia (5). Thus, warm droughts of the prehistoric past might provide evidence useful in understanding the current climatological changes, and for providing scenarios for worst-case droughts of the future and evidence of hydroclimatic responses in the Southwest to warmer climatic conditions. This paper examines recent temperature-drought relations and analyzes paleoclimatic data docum...

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“…Our study has been motivated by the finding of decadal-scale persistence of drought conditions over North America (Woodhouse and Overpeck 1998;Stahle et al 2007;Dai 2011) and low-frequency characteristics of fire cycles (e.g., Swetnam and Betancourt 1998;Westerling et al 2003;Brown et al 2005;Farris et al 2010), as reconstructed from lake sediments and fire-scar. Based on the perfect model framework, our results provide estimates of the maximum potential predictability of soil hydrological variability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%