Tree Species Selection in the Face of Drought Risk—Uncertainty in Forest Planning

Abstract

Rapid climate change leads to significant shifts in the site-productivity relationship of tree species and alters abiotic and biotic risks well beyond classical rotation ages on many forest sites worldwide. Forest conversion may be an adequate measure to counter possible negative effects of climate change. Unfortunately, climate-driven changes in abiotic and biotic risks bear a significant source of intrinsic uncertainty inherent in climate projections. It is our goal to appraise uncertainty in species selection under drought stress, one of the most important risk factors for many forests. We derive a method to assess drought restrictions and demonstrate the uncertainty in the process of species selection by applying three climate scenarios. Furthermore, we interpret the consequences of climate uncertainty in the light of different management goals, i.e., a business-as-usual silviculture, a climate protection strategy favoring CO 2 sequestration and a biodiversity strategy increasing diversity. The methods are applied to two representative regions in the North German Plain. The results clearly show the strong need for adaptive planning when drought restrictions are considered. However, different silvicultural management objectives may alter the extent of adaptive planning. The uncertainty in the planning process arising from different underlying climate projections strongly depends on the regional site characteristics and on forest management strategy. In conclusion, it is most important in forest planning to clearly state the management goals and to carefully explore if the goals can be met under climate change and if the uncertainty due to climate projections significantly affects the results of species selection.

Norway Spruce (Picea abies L.) Provenances Use Different Physiological Strategies to Cope with Water Deficit

“…The adaptive potential of the different spruce phenotypes (varieties) seems to be key information for nursery management [32], breeding, and development programs in forestry [33]. This experiment has proven the sensitivity of the physiological reactions of young tree seedlings to a water deficit.…”

Soil aggregation accounts for the mineral soil organic carbon and nitrogen accrual in broadleaved forests as compared to that of coniferous forests in Northeast China: Cross‐sites and multiple species comparisons

“…Our study also suggests that, regarding afforestation and management practices, a more balanced selection of tree species based on functional traits and relative composition ratios will benefit soil improvement. Many previous studies have focused on the traditional taxonomic classification of species (Albert, Nagel, Nuske, Sutmöller, & Spellmann, 2017;Roy, 2017;Sjöman, Hirons, & Bassuk, 2018), and, in Europe and the Northeast USA, oak, aspen, spruce, and pine are common afforestation species (Oostra, Majdi, & Olsson, 2006;Tjoelker, Reich, & Oleksyn, 1999;Vesterdal, Ritter, & Gundersen, 2002;Wang et al, 2016). At present, in Northeast China, certain foresttypes dominate afforestation efforts, such as shelterbelt forests and urban greening afforestation; broadleaf species (e.g., poplar) are top choices for these afforestation efforts owing to their fast growth and acclimation to disturbed environments (Wu & Wang, 2016), possibly lead to soil degradation (Wang, Lu, et al, 2017).…”

Diversity and forest productivity in a changing climate

“…First, it seems as if carefully composed tree mixtures are of interest. However, uncertainty in climate scenarios, and hence the subjective choice of a climate projection, may complicate the decision of the woodland owner (Albert et al, 2017). This review suggests that more species are better than fewer species and that the selected tree species should be as complementary as possible in their below-and aboveground functional traits.…”