Trend Analyses of Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Downscaled Outputs of Global Circulation Models in Western Black Sea Basin, Turkey

Balov, Mustafa Nuri; Altunkaynak, Abdüsselam

doi:10.1007/s40996-019-00237-3

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Certain biases exist in the model’s output, which can be addressed using bias correction methods. These uncertainties arise in the results of models due to insufficient calibration, lack of observed data, and the complexity of the climatic system Balov and Altunkaynak 43 . Bias correction methods are employed to remove the biases and improve the accuracy of the model’s generated results for the historical and future periods.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature-related indices in Prince Edward Island using ensemble average of three CMIP6 models

Maqsood,

Wang,

Farooque

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Prince Edward Island (PEI) is an agricultural province heavily relying on rainfed agriculture. The island has already experienced significant impacts from climate change. Accurate projections of PEI temperature extreme indices are required to mitigate and adapt to the changing climate conditions. This study aims to develop ensemble projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) to analyze temperature extremes on PEI. In this study, the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset was chosen for stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) due to its high accuracy. Three CMIP6 (NorESM2-MM, MPI-ESM1.2-HR, and CanESM5) GCMs, along with their ensemble average, were utilized in the SCA model to project future changes in daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) at four meteorological stations on PEI (East Point, Charlottetown, Summerside, and North Cape) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). These GCMs were selected based on their low, medium, and high Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. The bias-corrected results for the future period of Tmax and Tmin showed that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also impact the regional scale. Additionally, several temperature extreme indices, including the daily temperature range (DTR), summer days (SU), growing degree days (GDD), growing season length (GSL), ice days (ID), and frost days (FD), were analyzed for two future periods: FP1(202–2050) and FP2 (2051–2075). The results indicate that DTR, SU, GDD, and GSL are expected to increase, while ID and FD are projected to decrease during FP1 and FP2 under both scenarios. The future projected mean monthly changes in Tmax, Tmin, and the selected temperature extreme indices highlight warmer future periods and an increase in agriculture-related indices such as GDD and GSL. Specifically, July, August, and September are expected to experience even higher temperatures in the future. As the climate becomes warmer, cold extreme events are projected to be shorter in duration but more intense in terms of their impact. The largest increments/decrements for Tmax, Tmin, and their relevant indices were observed during FP2 under SSP5-8.5. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for agricultural development, water resource management, and the formulation of effective mitigation strategies to address the impacts of climate change on PEI.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature-related indices in Prince Edward Island using ensemble average of three CMIP6 models

Maqsood,

Wang,

Farooque

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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“…Some authors projected that these climate change‐related impacts would continue in the next few decades due to the ongoing temperature anomalies in the country, with predicted temperature increases between 2 and 6°C (Demircan et al., 2017 ; Önol et al., 2014 ). The increasing surface temperature has led to high evaporation rates in the Black Sea that caused intense flooding across the country, particularly in areas bordering the sea (Nuri Balov & Altunkaynak, 2019 ). Furthermore, projections of future climate trajectory in the country also estimated lesser amounts of snowfall in the interior part of the Black Sea region because of the orographic effects caused by natural barriers consisting of high mountains lying parallel to the shoreline of the Black Sea (Aksu et al., 2022 ; Nuri Balov & Altunkaynak, 2019 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The changes in precipitation, coupled with increased air temperature, are expected to drive long dry days (Nuri Balov & Altunkaynak, 2019 ) and a warmer winter and soil that would drive frequent freeze–thaw cycles, hence affecting soil respiration (R s ) rates, the main pathway in the carbon cycle in which CO 2 emissions from soil‐borne autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms escape into the atmosphere. Although R s rates could vary due to differences in plants' adaptability and productivity rates (Li et al., 2013 ; Pacaldo & Aydin, 2023 ) and availability of dissolved organic carbon and microbial biomass carbon (Liu et al., 2019 ), many studies demonstrated that the soil temperature strongly influences R s rates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil respiration and controls in warmer winter: A snow manipulation study in postfire and undisturbed black pine forests

Pacaldo,

Aydin,

Amarille

2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change impacts drive warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and forest fires. In 2020, a wildfire scorched about 1508 hectares of black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) forests in Türkiye. Whether the combined effects of lack of snow and forest fires significantly alter winter soil respiration (Rs) and soil temperature remains poorly understood. A field experiment was conducted in the postfire and undisturbed black pine forests during the winter to quantify Rs rates as affected by lack of snow and forest fire. We applied four treatments: snow‐exclusion postfire (SEPF), snow postfire (SPF), snow‐exclusion‐undisturbed forest (SEUF), and snow undisturbed forest (SUF). The SEPF exhibited the significantly lowest mean Rs rates (0.71 μmol m−2 s−1) compared to the SPF (1.02 μmol m−2 s−1), SEUF (1.44 μmol m−2 s−1), and SUF (1.48 μmol m−2 s−1). The Rs also showed significant variations with time (p < .0001). However, treatments and time revealed no statistically significant interaction effects (p = .6801). Total winter Rs (January–March) ranged from 4.47 to 4.59 Mt CO2 ha−1 in the undisturbed forest and 2.20 to 3.16 Mt CO2 ha−2 in the postfire site. The Rs showed a significantly positive relationship (p < .0001) with the soil (0.59) and air (0.46) temperatures and a significantly negative relationship (p = .0017) with the soil moisture (−0.20) at the 5 cm depth. In contrast, the Rs indicated a negative but not statistically significant relationship (p = .0932) with the soil moisture (−0.16) at the 10 cm soil depth. The combined effects of lack of snow and forest fire significantly decreased Rs, thus conserving the soil's organic carbon stocks and reducing the CO2 contribution to the atmosphere. In contrast, a warmer winter significantly increased Rs rates in the undisturbed forest, suggesting an acceleration of soil organic carbon losses and providing positive feedback to climate change.

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“…On the other hand, using the outputs of climate models such as global circulation models (GCMs) can provide a more reliable and more realistic picture of the future. Accordingly, a number of researchers have analyzed the outputs of GCMs under various scenarios in term of extreme precipitation events and the trend detection [23][24][25][26][27][28][29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The trend in the indices was examined and the author concluded that the trend in extreme precipitation indices was not significant during the time period of 1970 to 2017. On the other hand, the number of researches that used the outputs of general circulation models is not a lot [28,[30][31]. In this way, in a study [2] used the outputs of three GCMs under two emission scenarios to generate and trend detection of eight extreme precipitation extreme in the Western Black Sea Basin, Turkey.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

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The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.

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Trend Analyses of Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Downscaled Outputs of Global Circulation Models in Western Black Sea Basin, Turkey

Cited by 12 publications

References 41 publications

Future projections of temperature-related indices in Prince Edward Island using ensemble average of three CMIP6 models

Future projections of temperature-related indices in Prince Edward Island using ensemble average of three CMIP6 models

Soil respiration and controls in warmer winter: A snow manipulation study in postfire and undisturbed black pine forests

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

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