Trend analysis of winter rainfall over southern Québec and new Brunswick (Canada)

Groleau, Audrey; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume

doi:10.3137/ao.450303

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…For example: Mekis and Hogg (1999) found that total annual precipitation in many parts of Canada is on the rise; Stone et al (2000) reported that total annual precipitation in the south of Canada experienced an increase (from 1895 to 1996); Zhang et al (2000) found that the total annual precipitation has increased across Canada by 5%-35%. Groleau et al (2007) also found that 30% of the weather stations in southern Quebec and New Brunswick, Canada, experienced significant positive trends during winter rainfall.…”

Section: North Magnetawan Rivermentioning

confidence: 89%

Using discrete wavelet transforms to analyze trends in streamflow and precipitation in Quebec and Ontario (1954–2008)

Nalley¹,

Adamowski²,

Khalil³

2012

Journal of Hydrology

251

149

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Section: North Magnetawan Rivermentioning

confidence: 89%

Using discrete wavelet transforms to analyze trends in streamflow and precipitation in Quebec and Ontario (1954–2008)

Nalley¹,

Adamowski²,

Khalil³

2012

Journal of Hydrology

251

149

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“…The amount of rain. Many studies have shown that the amount of winter rain has increased significantly in southern Quebec and southern Canada (e.g., [11,34,35]). While this increase only affects low-intensity rain events [11], any increase in the amount of rain should lead to an increase in maximum and minimum water levels in the winter.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Variability of Monthly Daily Extreme Water Levels in the St. Lawrence River at the Sorel Station from 1912 to 2010

Assani

Landry

Labrèche

et al. 2014

Water

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Abstract:Although climate models predict that the impacts of climate change on the temporal variability of water levels in the St. Lawrence River will be seasonally-dependent, such a seasonal effect on the current variability of extreme water levels has never been analyzed. To address this, we analyzed the temporal variability of three hydrological variables (monthly daily maximums and minimums, as well as their ratio) of water levels in the St. Lawrence River measured at the Sorel station since 1912, as they relate to climate indices. As for stationarity, the shifts in the mean values of maximum and minimum water levels revealed by the Lombard method took place prior to 1970 for spring water levels, but after that year, for winter water levels. Changes in the winter stationarity are thought to mainly relate to the decreasing snowfall observed in the St. Lawrence River watershed after 1970. In contrast, for spring, these changes are likely primarily related to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams). Two shifts in the mean values of fall minimum extreme water levels were highlighted. The first of these shifts, which occurred in the first half of the 1960s decade, can also be linked to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams), whereas the second shift, observed after the 1970s for the months of November and December, can be linked to decreasing amounts of snow in winter. AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is the climate index that is most frequently correlated negatively with the hydrologic variables, mainly in winter and spring.

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“…Climate change is being manifested not only in increased average temperatures, but increased environmental variability, predominantly during winter (Bonsal et al 2001, Shabbar and Bonsal 2003, IPCC 2007). An expected consequence is a decrease in the reliability of an insulating snowpack (IPCC 2007), with increased January -Feburary precipitation in the form of rain (Groleau et al 2007). Variance in physical characteristics at the soil surface as a result of variable snow depths has been studied extensively, but the relationship between these characteristics and survival is less well known.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent data indicate a warming trend that occurs predominantly in winter (Bonsal et al 2001, Shabbar and Bonsal 2003, Groleau et al 2007, IPCC 2007), reducing the duration and constancy of the snowpack (IPCC 2007) and its insulating effects. The frequency of extreme warming events in Canada increased over the second half of the 20th century (Shabbar and Bonsal 2003, Groleau et al 2007) and anomalous January snowmelt has been increasing in frequency at 68°N in Sweden (Phoenix and Lee 2004). Given the potential importance of its effects, climate warming during winter months has been given inadequate attention (Inouye 2000, Phoenix and Lee 2004, Bokhorst et al 2008).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of snow depth on overwinter survival in Lobelia inflata

Simons

Goulet

Bellehumeur

2010

Oikos

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The snowpack in high altitude and latitude regions provides thermal insulation during the cold season. Recent climate change has resulted in a decrease in both the duration and the reliability of this snowpack and may thus affect overwinter survival of biota. Here we use a manipulation approach to ask how snow depth affects ground surface temperatures and how this in turn affects survival of the overwintering rosette stage in the monocarpic plant Lobelia inflata. A shallow but consistent insulation layer (R‐value of 3) was sufficient to reduce temperature fluctuations and the accumulation of sub‐zero degree‐days substantially. For all treatments >R3 these measures were negligible. Survival results are consistent with a crucial role of thermal insulation to successful overwintering of Lobelia inflata rosettes: without a consistent snowpack survival was low (11%); with an insulation effect of R3 or greater survival increased dramatically (81%). The winter prior to the manipulation study was characterized by an anomalous absence of snow at the onset of cold temperatures. This resulted in substantially greater accumulation of sub‐zero degree‐days at the soil surface and almost 100% rosette mortality in the field. This study shows that inconsistent and reduced snowpack – a prediction of climate change – will have critical effects on plant survival because of increased temperature fluctuations and extreme temperatures experienced at the soil surface.

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Trend analysis of winter rainfall over southern Québec and new Brunswick (Canada)

Cited by 15 publications

References 18 publications

Using discrete wavelet transforms to analyze trends in streamflow and precipitation in Quebec and Ontario (1954–2008)

Using discrete wavelet transforms to analyze trends in streamflow and precipitation in Quebec and Ontario (1954–2008)

Temporal Variability of Monthly Daily Extreme Water Levels in the St. Lawrence River at the Sorel Station from 1912 to 2010

The effect of snow depth on overwinter survival in Lobelia inflata

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