Trend and interannual variation in summer precipitation in eastern Siberia in recent decades

Fujinami, Hatsuki; Yasunari, Tetsuzo; Watanabe, Teruhisa

doi:10.1002/joc.4352

Cited by 40 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…Cold season precipitation was also shown to be declining, primarily in the Aldan River subcatchment [ Rawlins et al ., ]. Given that both spring peak flow and base flow remain relatively stable, the change in MADF can be attributed to a more frequent occurrence of a dipole pattern in atmospheric circulation, driving an increase in summer precipitation over the eastern part of the Lena River basin [ Fujinami et al ., ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 50%

Trends in annual and extreme flows in the Lena River basin, Northern Eurasia

Tananaev

Makarieva

Lebedeva

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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A long‐term daily streamflow data set, covering the period from 1925 to 2013, was compiled for the Lena River basin, with an average record length of 49 years. Time series of mean annual daily flow (MADF) and extreme (maximum, Qmax, and minimum, Qmin) daily flows were subject to trend detection and change point detection analysis. Significant changes result mostly from rapid “breakpoint” homogeneity disruptions. Thirty one time series showed trends in MADF, 10, in Qmax, and 32 of the 55 records with nonzero Qmin, significant at p ≤ 0.05. Upward trends prevail in both mean annual and extreme flows, with average magnitudes of 47% (MADF), 56% (Qmax), and 68% (Qmin). Two to three stations in each subset showed downward trends (averaging −20%, −39%, and −38%, respectively). Abrupt changes are observed in the 1990s and early 2000s mostly in the headwaters of the basin, underlain by discontinuous permafrost.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 50%

Trends in annual and extreme flows in the Lena River basin, Northern Eurasia

Tananaev

Makarieva

Lebedeva

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Recently, Fujinami et al (2016) found that the enhanced south-westerly MFC in summer over eastern Siberia was related to changes in stationary Rossby waves along the polar jet across the northern Eurasian continent. They suggested that atmospheric teleconnection was a major factor in the increasing trend and interannual variation in summer precipitation over eastern Siberia, i.e., the Lena basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally this east-west dipole pattern is well related to the east-west shift of storm tracks across Siberia (Fukutomi et al 2004(Fukutomi et al , 2007. More recently, Fujinami et al (2016) investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of summer precipitation over eastern Siberia using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period from 1979 to 2007. They showed an increasing trend of summer precipitation for the period (29 years) in eastern Siberia, and also revealed the leading modes of interannual variation in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent interdecadal changes in the interannual variability of precipitation and atmospheric circulation over northern Eurasia

Hiyama

Fujinami

Kanamori

et al. 2016

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This study investigated the interannual variability and trends in precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns over northern Eurasia using long-term Precipitation REConstruction over Land and atmospheric Japanese 55-year Reanalysis data (JRA-55) from 1958 to 2012. Special emphasis was placed on the recent increase in summer (June, July and August) precipitation around the Lena river basin in eastern Siberia. We found interdecadal modulation in the relationships between interannual variability in summer precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns among the three major Siberian river basins (Lena, Yenisei, and Ob). The interannual variations in summer precipitation over the Ob and Lena river basins were negatively correlated from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s. However, after the mid-1990s, this negative correlation became insignificant. In contrast, a significant positive correlation was apparent between the Yenisei and Lena river basins. We also found that there has been a significant increasing (positive) trend in geopotential height in the low-level troposphere since the mid-1980s over Mongolia and European Russia, resulting in an increasing trend of westerly moisture flux into the Yenisei and Lena river basins. Summer precipitation in both basins was continuously high from 2005 to 2008 under a trough that broadly extended from the Yenisei and Lena river basins, which has been a typical pattern of interannual variation since the mid-1990s. This trough increased the meridional pressure gradient between Mongolia and eastern Siberia in combination with the trend pattern. This further enhanced the eastward moisture flux towards the Lena river basin and its convergence over the basin, resulting in high summer precipitation from 2005 to 2008.

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“…Large-scale atmospheric circulation, which is becoming more erratic under global warming, has a major impact on 3661 precipitation variability (Muñoz-Díaz and Rodrigo, 2006;Fujinami et al, 2016). Change in atmospheric moisture is one of the results of a warming climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal variability of Hokkaido's seasonal precipitation in recent decades and connection to water vapour flux

Duan

Sahu

et al. 2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Based on 169 stations, annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation trends for the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido were analysed for the period 1980–2011 using the Mann–Kendall test and geostatistical interpolation techniques. Possible association with water vapour flux was explored using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. Precipitation increased in Hokkaido over the study period at both the annual and seasonal scales. In general, the northwest had higher precipitation than the southeast in winter, autumn and on an interannual basis and precipitation tended to be concentrated in the southeast in both spring and summer. There was also more precipitation during warm times of the year. For example, precipitation occurred mainly during the summer, ranging from 233 to 751 mm and autumn, ranging from 218 to 724 mm, while precipitation was significantly less in winter and spring. Most stations with declining precipitation trends were located in areas with higher precipitation, such as the west in winter and autumn and the southeast fringe in summer and scattered across the areas with lower precipitation in spring. Increases in precipitation were mainly seen in February, May, June, July, September, November and December at more than 100 stations. Amongst these, almost all of the stations showed positive trends in May (168 stations) and July (165 stations). Finally, the changes of the water vapour transport and budget in whole‐layers between the period 1980–2011 possibly explained the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation trends in Hokkaido.

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Trend and interannual variation in summer precipitation in eastern Siberia in recent decades

Cited by 40 publications

References 31 publications

Trends in annual and extreme flows in the Lena River basin, Northern Eurasia

Trends in annual and extreme flows in the Lena River basin, Northern Eurasia

Recent interdecadal changes in the interannual variability of precipitation and atmospheric circulation over northern Eurasia

Spatiotemporal variability of Hokkaido's seasonal precipitation in recent decades and connection to water vapour flux

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