Trend and Return Level Analysis of Extreme Rainfalls in Senegal

Sarr, Mamadou; Moussa, Mahamat Adoum; Dème, El Hadji; Diop, Bouya

doi:10.4236/jwarp.2022.143011

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…We used in situ data of precipitation for the 1951-2010 period collected from the Regional Centre for the Improvement of Plant Adaptation to Drought (Centre Régional pour l'Amélioration de l'Adaptation à la Sécheresse (CERAAS)), as previously described and used by several studies (e.g., [41][42][43]). The dataset consists of daily rainfall series from the network of the former National Meteorological Agency (now designated as Agence Nationale de l'aviation Civile et de la Météorologie du Senegal (ANACIM)) integrating other rain gauges operated by the Senegalese Institute for agricultural research (Institut Sénégalais de la Recherche Agricole (ISRA)) and CERAAS for crop monitoring and forecasting.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Trend and Multiscale Variability of Dry Spells in Senegal (1951–2010)

Agbazo,

Tall,

Sylla

2023

Atmosphere

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Dry spells occurring during the rainy season have significant implications for agricultural productivity and socioeconomic development, particularly in rainfed agricultural countries such as Senegal. This study employs various chaos-theory-based tools, including the lacunarity method, rescaled analysis, and the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) method, to investigate the distribution, predictability, and multiscale properties of the annual series of maximum dry spell length (AMDSL) in Senegal during the rainy season. The analysis focuses on 29 stations across Senegal, spanning the period from 1951 to 2010. The findings reveal persistent behavior in the AMDSL across nearly all stations, indicating that predictive models based on extrapolating past time trends could enhance AMDSL forecasting. Furthermore, a well-defined spatial distribution of the lacunarity exponent β is observed, which exhibits a discernible relationship with rainfall patterns in Senegal. Notably, the lacunarity exponent displays a south-to-north gradient for all thresholds, suggesting its potential for distinguishing between different drought regimes and zones while aiding in the understanding of spatiotemporal rainfall variability patterns. Moreover, the analysis identifies five significant intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) characterized by different periods, including interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal oscillations. These IMFs, along with a nonlinear trend, are identified as the driving forces behind AMDSL variations in Senegal. Among the inter-annual oscillations, a 3-year quasi-period emerges as the primary contributor and main component influencing AMDSL variability. Additionally, four distinct morphological types of nonlinear trends in AMDSL variations are identified, with increasing–decreasing and increasing trends being the most prevalent. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the variability in annual maximum dry spell lengths, particularly in the context of climate change, and provide valuable insights for improving AMDSL forecasting. Overall, this study enhances our comprehension of the complex dynamics underlying dry spell occurrences during the rainy season and presents potential avenues for predicting and managing the AMDSL in Senegal.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Trend and Multiscale Variability of Dry Spells in Senegal (1951–2010)

Agbazo,

Tall,

Sylla

2023

Atmosphere

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“…introduced a different method to the one of the previous author and give a comparative assessment study for drought meteorological sequences using the SPI indices. Recently, adopt the approach pro-posed by to analyse trends and return levels of extreme rainfalls in Senegal over the period 1951-2005 [5][6][7]. However, this present work focuses more on extreme dry than extreme wet, while extreme rainfalls heavy rainfall become more frequent as a result of climate change [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessments of Climate Indices on the Characterization of Extreme Rainfall in Senegal

2023

OAJAST

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In recent years, Senegal has experienced a considerable increase in extreme events. The context of climate change, we conducted this study to characterize the extreme rainfall events in Senegal through nine (9) indices of extreme precipitation calculated, using R software (Rclimdex) for the period 1950 to 2010 on several stations. These analyses show that the annual precipitation totals describe a decreasing trend. However, a return of these accumulations have been noted in 1999 in almost all stations of rainfall in Senegal. The extreme rainfall indices show also a linear decreasing trend over the period 1950 to 2010, with the exception of consecutive dry days (CDD). However, non-linear trend analysis (Loess curve) shows increasing trends in rainfall indices over the last decades (from 1991), except for consecutive dry days (CDD) and extremely wet days (R99p) which show a decreasing trend over the last decade.

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Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of the Drought of the 1970’s and 1980’s Years in Senegal (In West Africa)

Sarr,

Moussa,

Wade

et al. 2024

JWARP

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Trend and Return Level Analysis of Extreme Rainfalls in Senegal

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Nonlinear Trend and Multiscale Variability of Dry Spells in Senegal (1951–2010)

Nonlinear Trend and Multiscale Variability of Dry Spells in Senegal (1951–2010)

Assessments of Climate Indices on the Characterization of Extreme Rainfall in Senegal

Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of the Drought of the 1970’s and 1980’s Years in Senegal (In West Africa)

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Trend and Return Level Analysis of Extreme Rainfalls in Senegal

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Nonlinear Trend and Multiscale Variability of Dry Spells in Senegal (1951–2010)

Nonlinear Trend and Multiscale Variability of Dry Spells in Senegal (1951–2010)

Assessments of Climate Indices on the Characterization of Extreme Rainfall in Senegal

Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of the Drought of the 1970&#8217;s and 1980&#8217;s Years in Senegal (In West Africa)

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Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of the Drought of the 1970’s and 1980’s Years in Senegal (In West Africa)