‘Trend in premature mortality from four major NCDs in Nanjing, China, 2007–2018’

Abstract

Background This study aims to analyze the trends of premature mortality caused from four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs), namely cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in Nanjing between 2007 and 2018 and project the ability to achieve the “Healthy China 2030” reduction target. Methods Mortality data of four major NCDs for the period 2007–2018 were extracted from the Death Information Registration and Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Population data for Nanjing were provided by the Nanjing Bureau of Public Security. The premature mortality was calculated using the life table method. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percent changes (AAPC) in mortality trends. Results From 2007 to 2018, the premature mortality from four major NCDs combined in Nanjing decreased from 15.5 to 9.5%, with the AAPC value at − 4.3% (95% CI [− 5.2% to − 3.4%]). Overall, it can potentially achieve the target, with a relative reduction 28.6%. The premature mortality from cancer, CVD, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes all decreased, with AAPC values at − 4.2, − 5.0%, − 5.9% and − 1.6% respectively. A relative reduction of 40.6 and 41.2% in females and in rural areas, but only 21.0 and 12.8% in males and in urban areas were projected. Conclusion An integrated approach should be taken focusing on the modifiable risk factors across different sectors and disciplines in Nanjing. The prevention and treatment of cancers, diabetes, male and rural areas NCDs should be enhanced.

Assessing progress of India in reduction of premature mortality due to four noncommunicable diseases towards achieving the WHO 25×25 goal and the sustainable development goals

“…This suggests that the expected 25% and 33% reduction by 2025 and 2030 target is likely to be challenging for India with the current mortality rate decline in the 4NCDs. This reduction is much lower than the lower and middle‐income countries (25.1%), as well as other countries like Moldova (25%), Peru (23.2% among women), China (38.7%), and Sweden (26.6%) (Allen et al, 2017; Carrillo‐Larco et al, 2020; Cousin et al, 2022; Raevschi, 2017; Santosa et al, 2015; Yang et al, 2021). If the current trend continues, the target of 25% (WHO) and 33% (SDG) could be achieved by 2039 and 2053.…”

“…The current study sought to assess India's progress toward WHO's and Sweden (26.6%) (Allen et al, 2017;Carrillo-Larco et al, 2020;Cousin et al, 2022;Raevschi, 2017;Santosa et al, 2015;Yang et al, 2021). If the current trend continues, the target of 25% (WHO) and 33% (SDG) could be achieved by 2039 and 2053.…”

Prevalence and spatial distribution characteristics of human echinococcosis: A county-level modeling study in southern Xinjiang, China

“…APC >0 indicates an increasing trend and APC <0 indicates a decreasing trend. APC = AAPC indicates the trend has monotonically either increased or decreased [ 17 ]. Although the JPR model has been widely used in chronic disease epidemiological trend research, it is less commonly used in the prevention and control of echinococcosis.…”