Trend of Chip Industry under the Negative Interest Rate Policy: Based on Time Series Model

Abstract

On 7 October 2022, the US government issued a revised policy regarding semiconductor technology export toward China. The 139 pages of rules stated the regulation on export of chips, more specifically, the advanced computer chips that could support AI algorithms. In fact, this is not the first time for US government banning export of high-end computer chips to China, but this one could be the most expensive export restriction within a decade. Chinese chip companies have long suffered from the banning from US government, the development of the whole industry is filled with twists and turns as well, but the thriving of Chinese chip market is still deeply related to the US economy's performance. This paper discovers the correlation between the performance of Chinese chip industry, which is revealed by the index level of chip industry within China's mainland stock market, and the US to RMB exchange rate, starting from 2016 to present. The paper applied ARMA-GARCH model to predict and analyze the data, studying how will US exchange rate affect the development of chip industry in China. It also predicts the development of Chinese chip industry and then makes suggestions for future development of the Chinese chip companies.