Trend Slope Risk Charts (TSRC) for piecewise ITA method: an application in Oxford, 1771–2020

Şişman, Eyüp; Kizilöz, Burak; Birpınar, Mehmet Emin

doi:10.1007/s00704-022-04187-1

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 59 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…To address this problem, Sen [43] proposed the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) approach, which can solve the challenge of trend detection in autocorrelated time series data. Studies around the world have confirmed the reliability of the ITA method [2,[44][45][46][47].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Northwest Ethiopia: Comparative Analysis Using the Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

Likinaw,

Alemayehu,

Bewket

2023

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study analyzed long-term extreme precipitation indices using 4 × 4 km gridded data obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2018. The study examined trends in extreme precipitation over three districts (Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint, and Simada) in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend tests were used to study extreme precipitation trends. Based on the ITA result, the calculated values of nine indices (90% of the analyzed indices) showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 70% (seven indices) showed significantly increasing trends at p < 0.01. On the other hand, 60% of the extreme indices showed significant downward trends (p < 0.01) in Simada. The MK test revealed that 30% of the extreme indices had significantly increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 30% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05, while 10% of the extreme indices exhibited significant increasing trends at p < 0.01. In Simada, 20% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05. Overall, the results showed that the ITA method can identify a variety of significant trends that the MK test misses.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Northwest Ethiopia: Comparative Analysis Using the Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

Likinaw,

Alemayehu,

Bewket

2023

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Actual and Potential Trend Analysis Under Climate Change Using Risk Sen's Slope (RSS) in Western Black Sea Basin in Türkiye

Keskin,

Abu Arra,

Akca

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Several classical and innovative trend methods exist in the literature to identify and evaluate the effects of climate change on hydro‐meteorological variables. Among the classical methods, the most commonly used ones are modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Sen's slope (SS). As for the innovative methods to identify potential trends (probable risk levels) in hydro‐meteorological variables depending on changing the initial conditions and temporal dynamic development behaviour of the trends, the risk Sen's slope (RSS) method was proposed based on different risk values. The actual trends are proposed in this research to comprehensively understand and analyse the climate change trend over the entire period. It uses RSS and the classical trends MMK and SS. Also, the spatiotemporal classical, actual and potential trends in meteorological variables are evaluated. Additionally, the advantages of the RSS method compared with classical SS are discussed in detail. The Western Black Sea basin in Türkiye, with monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature data from 1961 to 2023, is selected as a representative application. The temperature trend results show that the 0.99 risk level gave approximately 25% higher slope than SS. The maximum temperature‐increasing trend within the study area and the time period at 0.99 risk level is 2.10°C. However, the differences between precipitation trend slopes obtained by SS and RSS for different risk levels are relatively low. Furthermore, using different slopes corresponding to several risk levels allows for more proactive and effective measures for sustainable agricultural activities and water management. The actual temperature trend within the basin ranges between 1.33°C and 2.09°C, and the actual precipitation trend ranges between 2.78 and 12.74 mm over the study period.

show abstract

Classic trend analysis methods’ paradoxical results and innovative trend analysis methodology with percentile ranges

Birpınar¹,

Kizilöz

Şişman

2023

Theor Appl Climatol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Trend Slope Risk Charts (TSRC) for piecewise ITA method: an application in Oxford, 1771–2020

Cited by 5 publications

References 59 publications

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Northwest Ethiopia: Comparative Analysis Using the Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Northwest Ethiopia: Comparative Analysis Using the Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis Methods

Actual and Potential Trend Analysis Under Climate Change Using Risk Sen's Slope (RSS) in Western Black Sea Basin in Türkiye

Classic trend analysis methods’ paradoxical results and innovative trend analysis methodology with percentile ranges

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About