Trends and changes detection in rainfall, temperature and wind speed in Burundi

Lawin, Agnidé Emmanuel; Manirakiza, Célestin; Lamboni, Batablinlè

doi:10.2166/wcc.2018.155

Cited by 17 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The findings from this study projecting increase in WS which implies increase in WPD are consistent with many studies from different regions of the globe as well as studies from East Africa [2] [45] [46] [47] [48]. Indeed, Lawin et al [15] reported increasing trend in wind speed at Northern Imbo plain while Collins et al [14], predicted that Burundi would experience more extreme weather conditions in the future characterized by high winds; which is consistent with our findings.…”

Section: Future Wind Speed Potential On Different Heights In Thesupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In fact, at significance level equals to 0.05, the Kendall's tau of 0.31, 0.38, 0.36 and 0.49 with their respective p-values equal to 0.0098, 0.0016, 0.0033 and < 0.0001 were revealed at NHL, NIP, SHL and SIP, respectively. This increasing trend in wind speed is consistent with the findings in many studies from the East Africa [15] [43]. Figure 10 presents the monthly distribution of wind power density (WPD) over the reference period 1981-2010.…”

Section: Wind Speed Interannual Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 87%

“…But it clearly makes it possible to discriminate years with low wind speeds from years with high wind speeds. The standardized variable index also makes it possible to analyze the interannual variability of the key variable at considered spatial scales [15].…”

Section: Variability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The analysis of the standardized WS index reveals two main parts over the four sites including the period 1980-1996 in low wind speeds and the period 1997-2016 in high wind speeds. Indeed, Lawin et al [15] attributed the cause of the difference between the two periods on environmental destruction. Furthermore, Havyarimana [42] showed negative impact of socio-political instability which started in Burundi in 1993 on the environment.…”

Section: Turbulence Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power Potential in Burundi (East Africa)

Manirakiza¹,

Emmanuel²,

Lamboni³

et al. 2019

AJCC

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This paper assessed climate change impact on future wind power potential across highlands and western lowlands of Burundi. Hourly observed and MERRA-2 data were considered for the historical period 1980-2016, and a Multi-model ensemble for future projections data of eight selected Regional Climate Models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 over the periods 2019-2040 and 2071-2100 was used. Variability and trend analysis were adopted using standardized index and Mann-Kendall's test, respectively while wind power density (WPD) in quartiles was adopted for changes distribution. As results, diurnal wind speeds (WS) were higher from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM, while monthly wind speeds reached the maximum during summer time. An increasing trend in WPD was detected all over the studied area. Over the period 2019-2040, the lowest WPD change is projected at Northern Highlands (NHL) under RCP 4.5 with 28.04 W·m −2 while the highest WPD change of 47.35 W·m −2 is projected under RCP 8.5 at Southern Imbo plain (SIP). As for the period 2071-2100, the highest change is expected at SIP under RCP 8.5 with 152.39 W·m −2 while the minimum change of 83.96 W·m −2 is projected under RCP 4.5 at NHL. The findings showed that areas nearby the Lake Tanganyika are expected to have high positive WDP changes.

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Section: Future Wind Speed Potential On Different Heights In Thesupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Wind Speed Interannual Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Variability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Turbulence Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power Potential in Burundi (East Africa)

Manirakiza¹,

Emmanuel²,

Lamboni³

et al. 2019

AJCC

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“…Such an absence of significant trend in rainfall is also reported by N'Tcha M'Po et al [40] in Ouémé river basin by 2050, using a REMO model. Similarly, Lawin et al [42] reported no trend in rainfall pattern in the Imbo north plain region in Burundi under central Africa climatology using an ensemble of eight regional climate models. The SPI computed for each region emphasizes this variability ( Figure 5).…”

Section: Future Rainfall Patternmentioning

confidence: 96%

Statistical Analysis of Recent and Future Rainfall and Temperature Variability in the Mono River Watershed (Benin, Togo)

Lawin

Hounguè

Biaou

et al. 2019

Climate

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This paper assessed the current and mid-century trends in rainfall and temperature over the Mono River watershed. It considered observation data for the period 1981-2010 and projection data from the regional climate model (RCM), REMO, for the period 2018-2050 under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Rainfall data were interpolated using ordinary kriging. Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Standardized Normal Homogeneity (SNH) tests were used for trends and break-points detection. Rainfall interannual variability analysis was based on standardized precipitation index (SPI), whereas anomalies indices were considered for temperature. Results revealed that on an annual scale and all over the watershed, temperature and rainfall showed an increasing trend during the observation period. By 2050, both scenarios projected an increase in temperature compared to the baseline period 1981-2010, whereas annual rainfall will be characterized by high variabilities. Rainfall seasonal cycle is expected to change in the watershed: In the south, the second rainfall peak, which usually occurs in September, will be extended to October with a higher value. In the central and northern parts, rainfall regime is projected to be characterized by late onsets, a peak in September and lower precipitation until June and higher thereafter. The highest increase and decrease in monthly precipitation are expected in the northern part of the watershed. Therefore, identifying relevant adaptation strategies is recommended.Climate 2019, 7, 8 2 of 17 Furthermore, in tropical Africa a significant increase in temperature, about 0.15 • C per decade, was detected over the period 1979-2010 [5]. Consequently, high fatality rates are recorded in developing countries because of their high reliance on natural resources and their limited coping capacities [6]. Several authors highlighted that, since the 1970s, the number of natural disasters (flood, drought, windstorm, epidemic and famine) has been increasing in sub-Saharan Africa [7][8][9]. In 2012, central and western Africa were hit by severe floods which affected 1,538,242 people and caused 340 deaths as of September of that year. Moreover, flood events of 2010 have been recorded in West Africa as one of the most disastrous during the last decade. In 2010 only, Benin lost about USD 262 million [10], whereas Togo recorded about USD 43.934 million as damage and loss in the same year [11].Thus, there is a need to carry out future climate analysis in order to foresee potential hazards and ultimately to develop appropriate strategies to combat them. According to the fifth assessment report AR5, "global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5 • C relative to 1850-1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6" [12]. However, it is clear that climate-change impacts will be time and location specific [13]. Therefore, undertaking climate projection at regional and local level will contribute to more accurate and relevant actions towards human security.As in many other watersheds in the ...

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Measuring the degree of rainfall alteration and eco-deficit/eco-surplus of rainfall using indicators of rainfall alteration approach

Pal,

Khatun,

Debanshi

et al. 2024

Acta Geophys.

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Trends and changes detection in rainfall, temperature and wind speed in Burundi

Cited by 17 publications

References 20 publications

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power Potential in Burundi (East Africa)

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power Potential in Burundi (East Africa)

Statistical Analysis of Recent and Future Rainfall and Temperature Variability in the Mono River Watershed (Benin, Togo)

Measuring the degree of rainfall alteration and eco-deficit/eco-surplus of rainfall using indicators of rainfall alteration approach

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