Trends and cycles in macro series: The case of US real GDP

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luís A.

doi:10.1111/boer.12278

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Consequently, several papers have examined the stationarity of real GDP per capita (Fleissig and Strauss, 1999;Aslanidis and Fountas, 2014;Caporale and Gil-Alana, 2021;etc. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data

et al. 2022

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The degree of persistence of the real gross domestic product per capita, total factor productivity and labour productivity has been examined in a group of 23 developed and developing nations, as well as the overall Euro Area, by evaluating the order of integration of the macroeconomic series over the annual period from 1890 to 2019. As against the conventional use of using integer degrees of differentiation (i.e., 0 for stationary processes and 1 in case of unit roots), fractional values have been utilized. The empirical findings suggest evidence for mean reversion in both total factor productivity and the real gross domestic product per capita in Chile, Germany, Netherlands and New Zealand. The results further suggest that mean reversion only occur in labour productivity of Australia. The non-linearity analysis shows that nonlinearity in the three series occur only in the U.S and also in two of the three series in Chile, Spain and Mexico. The policy implications of the results are enumerated in the body of the paper.

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“…Consequently, several papers have examined the stationarity of real GDP per capita (Fleissig and Strauss, 1999;Aslanidis and Fountas, 2014;Caporale and Gil-Alana, 2021;etc. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Bäurle et al (2020) found that the factor model structure outperforms the benchmarks in most tests, and in many cases also the Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR), and the analysis of the covariance matrix of the sectoral forecast errors suggests that the superiority can be traced back to the ability to capture sectoral co-movement more accurately. Caporale & Gil-Alana (2021) shows that the behaviour of US GDP can be captured accurately by a model incorporating both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles that allows for some degree of persistence in the data, both appear to be mean reverting, although the stochastic trend is nonstationary, while the cyclical component is stationary, with cycles repeating themselves every 6-10 years. Fatima et al (2020) results outline an intriguing indirect relationship between trade openness and GDP growth, if human capital accumulation (HCA) is taken into account as an intervening variable, trade may have a negative impact on GDP growth when countries exhibit a low level of HCA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unemployment and Gross Domestic Product: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Asri

2021

JBMR

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The principal link through which economic growth is transmitted to the poor is the amount of employment it generates which derives from the fact that labor is about the only resource in which the poor are relatively abundant, thus, for the poor, the productive use of their plentiful factor, labor, is the principal way to overcome poverty. Many factors affect the gross domestic product, such as unemployment. The objective of this research is to determine the influence of unemployment on the gross domestic product, especially in Papua New Guinea. This research uses quantitative methods and linear regression analysis. The results of the analysis show that there is a significant influence of unemployment on GDP in Papua New Guinea for the period 1991 – 2019. The influence of unemployment on GDP in Papua New Guinea is significant because of the small number of people and most of them are workers, unemployment is very influential on GDP.

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GDP PER Capita in Europe: Time Trends and Persistence

Caporale

Gil-Alana

Monge

2020

JBME

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This paper uses fractional integration techniques to show the existence of a negative correlation between the level of GDP per capita and its degree of persistence in a number of European countries. Weaker institutions and "shock absorbers" (financial markets to diversify risk and stabilization policies to counter shocks) might be the reason why countries with lower GDP per capita are characterized by a less effective management of the economy in response to shocks.

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Trends and cycles in macro series: The case of US real GDP

Cited by 3 publications

References 32 publications

Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data

Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data

Unemployment and Gross Domestic Product: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

GDP PER Capita in Europe: Time Trends and Persistence

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