Trends and driving forces of agricultural carbon emissions: A case study of Anhui, China

Abstract

To facilitate accurate prediction and empirical research on regional agricultural carbon emissions, this paper uses the LLE-PSO-XGBoost carbon emission model, which combines the Local Linear Embedding (LLE), Particle Swarm Algorithm (PSO) and Extreme Gradient Boosting Algorithm (XGBoost), to forecast regional agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province under different scenarios. The results show that the regional agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province generally show an upward and then downward trend during 2000–2021, and the regional agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province in 2030 are expected to fluctuate between 11,342,100 tones and 14,445,700 tones under five different set scenarios. The projections of regional agricultural carbon emissions can play an important role in supporting the development of local regional agriculture, helping to guide the input and policy guidance of local rural low-carbon agriculture and promoting the development of rural areas towards a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.