Trends and risk factors analysis of aortic aneurysm mortality in China over thirty years: based on the global burden of disease 2019 data

Abstract

Objectives This study aims to analyze the variation in mortality burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) and explore the associated risk factors based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, investigating the mortality burden of AA in China. Methods Using GBD 2019 data, the mortality burden of AA in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to analyze time trends, period, and cohort effects of 4 attributable risk factors of AA by age. Results In 2019, the total number of AA deaths in China increased by 136.1% compared to 1990, while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased by 6.8%. Male deaths and ASMR were higher than those of females, and ASMR increased with age. Whether viewed overall (Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC): -0.261, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): -0.383 to -0.138) or by sex (female AAPC: -0.812, 95% CI: -0.977 to -0.646; male AAPC: -0.011, 95% CI: -0.183 to 0.162), the ASMR for AA in China has shown a declining trend since 1990. Attributable risk factors such as high blood pressure, a diet high in sodium, smoking, and lead exposure increase AA mortality with age. Smoking mortality peaks between ages 80–85. The cyclical effect of high blood pressure on AA mortality significantly increases, while the cyclical effects of the other three risk factors decrease. For the population born after 1940, the cohort effect of high systolic blood pressure (SBP), a diet high in sodium, and smoking increased, while the cohort effect of lead exposure decreased. The local drift values of high SBP, a diet high in sodium, and smoking decreased, while the local drift value of lead exposure increased. High SBP was identified as the most significant attributable risk factor for AA mortality burden among both males and females, and smoking was another major attributable risk factor, particularly in males. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, fatality due to AA in China increased notably, but the ASMR showed a decreasing trend. The mortality rate of AA was influenced by age, sex, and attributable risk factors, with elderly male smokers carrying a heavy burden of death. Moreover, tobacco control and treatment of hypertension should be strengthened to reduce the burden and its impact on AA.