Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.035

Cited by 80 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The conclusion regarding the dominant effect of temperature is consistent with previous research [12], while, for MARD, the sensitivity of the parameters is similar to that in LogNS. It is worth noting that the precipitation lapse rate (Plaps) is not as sensitive as glacier and snow melt parameters.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysissupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Using statistical analysis, Zhang et al [11] looked at the increase in streamflow in the Tienshan Mountains, which the researchers attributed to a significant increase in precipitation. Shen et al [12], also employing statistical analysis, showed that mean streamflow has experienced a significant increase since the 1990s that is consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations at both annual and seasonal scales. In addition to studying hydrological processes, hydrological models can be used to predict future water resources when coupled with climate models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Recently, many studies [6,[10][11][12][13][14][15] on current and future water resources in Central Asia have been conducted to gain a deeper understanding of the complex hydrological processes of the region. These studies also intend to gauge, through both statistical analysis on historical data and hydrological modeling, how the area's water resources might change in the coming years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

Fang

Jian

Chen

2019

Water

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Understanding glacio-hydrological processes is crucial to water resources management, especially under increasing global warming. However, data scarcity makes it challenging to quantify the contribution of glacial melt to streamflow in highly glacierized catchments such as those in the Tienshan Mountains. This study aims to investigate the glacio-hydrological processes in the SaryDjaz-Kumaric River (SDKR) basin in Central Asia by integrating a degree-day glacier melt algorithm into the macro-scale hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. To deal with data scarcity in the alpine area, a multi-objective sensitivity analysis and a multi-objective calibration procedure were used to take advantage of all aspects of streamflow. Three objective functions, i.e., the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of logarithms (LogNS), the water balance index (WBI), and the mean absolute relative difference (MARD), were considered. Results show that glacier and snow melt-related parameters are generally sensitive to all three objective functions. Compared to the original SWAT model, simulations with a glacier module match fairly well to the observed streamflow, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and R2 approaching 0.82 and an absolute percentage bias less than 1%. Glacier melt contribution to runoff is 30–48% during the simulation period. The approach of combining multi-objective sensitivity analysis and optimization is an efficient way to identify important hydrological processes and recharge characteristics in highly glacierized catchments.

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Section: Sensitivity Analysissupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

Fang

Jian

Chen

2019

Water

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“…The frequency and the variability of the discharge in rivers and their relationship with runoff coming from snowmelt is a recurrent topic even in recent studies [3][4][5][6]. Sensitivity studies of the variables that intervene in the melting processes are another key issue, for example, Kult et al [7] evaluates the sensitivity of a snowmelt runoff model with temperature input data, in a region with complex temperature elevation gradients.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Role of Snowmelt in a Flood Event in a Gauged Catchment

Mateo-Lázaro

Castillo-Mateo

Navarro

et al. 2019

Water

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An actual event that happened in the Roncal valley (Spain) is investigated and the results are compared between models with and without snowmelt. A distributed rainfall model is generated with the specific data recorded by the rain gauges of the catchment during the episode. To describe the process of water routing in the hydrological cycle of the basin, a model is used based on combinations of parallel linear reservoirs (PLR model), distribution by the basin, and tip-out into its drainage network configured using a digital terrain model (DTM). This PLR model allows simulation of the different actual reservoirs of the basin, including the snow and the contribution due to its melting which, in the model, depends on the temperature. The PLR model also allows for a water budget of the episode where, in addition to the effective rainfall contribution, the water that comes from the thaw is taken into account. The PLR model also allows determination of the amount of water that exists in the basin before and after the episode, data of great interest. When comparing the simulations with and without taking into account the thawing process, it is evident that the intervention of the snow reservoir has been decisive in causing a flood to occur.

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“…Additionally, rising temperatures have changed glacier mass balances and snowfall fraction, which leads to less snow accumulation and alters the role of meltwater in the regional water balance (Chen et al, ). In the Kaidu Basin on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, climate‐driven changes not only increase the volume of streamflow (Chen et al, ; Deng et al, ; Shen et al, ; Tao et al, ; Wang et al, ), but also the seasonal variability of streamflow (Liu et al, ) and glacier melt (Liu et al, ). Snowmelt runoff timing is expected to shift toward earlier dates due to spring temperature increases (Liu et al, ; Shen et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling the Hydrology of the Glacierized Kaidu Basin by Integrating Multisource Data in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China

Shen

Fink

Kralisch

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Understanding the water balance, especially as it relates to the distribution of runoff components, is crucial for water resource management and coping with the impacts of climate change. However, hydrological processes are poorly known in mountainous regions due to data scarcity and the complex dynamics of snow and glaciers. This study aims to provide a quantitative comparison of gridded precipitation products in the Tianshan Mountains, located in Central Asia and in order to further understand the mountain hydrology and distribution of runoff components in the glacierized Kaidu Basin. We found that gridded precipitation products are affected by inconsistent biases based on a spatiotemporal comparison with the nearest weather stations and should be evaluated with caution before using them as boundary conditions in hydrological modeling. Although uncertainties remain in this data‐scarce basin, driven by field survey data and bias‐corrected gridded data sets (ERA‐Interim and APHRODITE), the water balance and distribution of runoff components can be plausibly quantified based on the distributed hydrological model (J2000). We further examined parameter sensitivity and uncertainty with respect to both simulated streamflow and different runoff components based on an ensemble of simulations. This study demonstrated the possibility of integrating gridded products in hydrological modeling. The methodology used can be important for model applications and design in other data‐scarce mountainous regions. The model‐based simulation quantified the water balance and how the water resources are partitioned throughout the year in Tianshan Mountain basins, although the uncertainties present in this study result in important limitations.

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Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

Cited by 80 publications

References 47 publications

Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

Assessment of the Role of Snowmelt in a Flood Event in a Gauged Catchment

Unraveling the Hydrology of the Glacierized Kaidu Basin by Integrating Multisource Data in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China

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