Trends, Extreme Events and Long-term Health Impacts of Particulate Matter in a Southern Indian Industrial Area

Abstract

The present study uses various statistical tools to understand the behaviour of PM 2.5 and PM 10 in the Kanjikode industrial area of Southern India. Annual PM 2.5 and PM 10 average concentrations in 2018–2020 were three times more than the World Health Organization–specified standards (5 and 15 µg m −3 ). The statistical distribution analysis suggested well-fitted lognormal and gamma distributions of 24-h average PM 2.5 concentrations and gamma distributions of 24-h average PM 10 concentrations. Trend analysis observed a notable monotonic increasing trend for 24-h average PM 2.5 concentrations with an increasing magnitude of 0.43 µg m −3 per annum. A downward trend was found for 24-h average PM 10 concentrations, with a decreasing magnitude of 0.2 µg m −3 per year. Extreme event analysis of PM 2.5 and PM 10 has provided the highest concentration levels expected in the coming 10 years, 193 and 165 µg m −3 , respectively, higher than the Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standards and considered a public health threat. The health risk assessment by AirQ + emphasized that more than 15, 34, and 27 premature deaths caused by total mortality in 2018, 2019, and 2020 could have been prevented if PM 2.5 concentrations in the Kanjikode industrial area did not exceed 10 μg m −3 . Statistical analysis and health risk assessment suggested adopting various constructive and multipronged approaches to reduce pollution levels and develop a health risk management plan in the industrial region. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11270-023-06302-y.