Trends in Arctic seasonal and extreme precipitation in recent decades

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan

doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03717-7

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…However, it is argued that the trend in accumulated precipitation is not related to air masses experiencing increased intensities further south. In general, the finding that the air masses have experienced an increase in accumulated precipitation is in keeping with claims that the Arctic is getting wetter, as total precipitation increases (Bintanja, 2018;Yu and Zhong, 2021). It should be noted though that some studies could not observe any significant trends in the precipitation rate in the Arctic over a similar period (Breider et al, 2017).…”

Section: Biomass Burning Eventssupporting

confidence: 80%

Increase in precipitation scavenging contributes to long-term reductions of black carbon in the Arctic

Heslin-Rees

Tunved

Ström

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Black carbon (BC), the most efficient atmospheric aerosol for absorbing light in the visible spectrum, exerts a warming effect on a region undergoing unprecedented climatic changes. Here, BC is studied indirectly using filter-based methods to ascertain aerosol light absorption parameters. We investigated long-term changes using a harmonised 21-year data set of light absorption measurements, in conjunction with air mass source analysis. The measurements were performed at Zeppelin Observatory (ZEP), Svalbard, from 2002 to 2022. We report a statistically significant (s.s.) decreasing long-term trend for the light absorption coefficient, measured at the site for the entirety of the data set. However, the last 7 years, 2016–2022, showed a slightly increasing s.s. trend for the haze season. In addition, we observed an increasing trend in the single scattering albedo from 2002 to 2022. Five distinct source regions were identified; the trends involving air masses from the five regions showed decreasing absorption coefficients, except for the air masses influenced by emissions from Eurasia. We show that the changes in the occurrences of each transport pathway cannot explain the reductions in the absorption coefficient observed at the Zeppelin station; an increase in contributions of air masses from more marine regions, with lower absorption coefficients, is compensated by the influence from high-emission regions. Along with aerosol optical properties, we also show an increasing trend in accumulated surface precipitation experienced by air masses en route to the Zeppelin Observatory. We argue that rainfall, as a sink of aerosol, plays a role in the long-term trends in the absorption coefficient, explaining approximately a quarter of the overall trend. A decreasing trend in the scavenging ratio further suggests an increase in the aerosol removal processes. We note that there is an increasing potential influence from active forest fires, particularly in the last few summers (i.e. 2015–2022). Active fires have been shown to have a significant impact on the mean seasonal absorption coefficient especially during northern hemispheric summer. However, no noticeable alteration in annual long-term trends can be observed.

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Section: Biomass Burning Eventssupporting

confidence: 80%

Increase in precipitation scavenging contributes to long-term reductions of black carbon in the Arctic

Heslin-Rees

Tunved

Ström

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…However, elevated discharge events prior to onset of freezing appear to be a normal feature in the annual hydroperiod in similar rivers, with increased discharge events in the fall being observed in the Severnaya Dvina and Mezen Rivers in Western Russia and other high‐latitude Arctic rivers like the Tana, the Alta, and the Pechora (Dankers & Middelkoop, 2007; Johnston et al., 2018). We propose that as temperatures drop and precipitation events occur more frequently in the fall (Wang et al., 2021; Yu & Zhong, 2021), an “autumn squeeze” may occur as peatlands freeze and thaw, essentially “wringing out” C rich soils into the Onega and other northern high‐latitude peatland‐draining rivers. Another potential explanation for this peak in DOC concentration during the fall is that the small size of the Onega essentially “amplifies” the signal of increased precipitation in the fall relative to the summer and subsequent increased discharge.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing Uncertainty in Pan‐Arctic Land‐Ocean Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux: Insights From the Onega River, Russia

et al. 2023

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Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux from rivers in the pan‐Arctic watershed represents an important connection between major terrestrial carbon stocks and the Arctic Ocean. Previous estimates of Arctic carbon flux and dissolved organic matter (DOM) seasonal dynamics have relied predominantly on measurements from the six major Arctic rivers, yet these may not be representative of northern high‐latitude constrained smaller watersheds. Here, we evaluate DOC concentration and DOM composition in the Onega River, a small Arctic watershed, using optical measurements and ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry. Compared to the six largest Arctic rivers, DOC, absorbance at a350, and indicators of terrestrial DOM (e.g., specific UV absorbance at 254 nm, modified aromaticity index, relative abundance of condensed aromatics and polyphenolics) were elevated in the Onega throughout the year. Seasonality was also generally muted in comparison to the major Arctic rivers with relatively elevated DOC and terrestrial markers in both spring and fall seasons. The Onega exhibits a strong relationship between a350 and DOC, and its organic‐rich nature is apparent in its high DOC yield (4.85 g m2yr−1), and higher chromophoric DOM per unit DOC than the six largest Arctic rivers. As DOC yield from the Onega may be more representative of smaller northern high‐latitude rivers, we derived a new pan‐Arctic DOC flux scaling estimate which is over 50% higher than previous estimates scaled solely from the six major Arctic rivers. These observations suggest that smaller northern high‐latitude rivers may be underrepresented in Arctic carbon flux models and highlights uncertainty around constraining the export of DOC to the Arctic Ocean.

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“…As noted in the introduction, while the observational evidence for systematic trends in Arctic precipitation and precipitation extremes is spotty (Walsh et al ., 2020; Yu and Zhong, 2021), results from numerous modelling studies point to a future Arctic with more precipitation, a transition from snowfall‐ to rainfall‐dominated climates, and a shorter return period for high‐intensity events (e.g., Kharin et al ., 2013; Sillmann et al ., 2013; Toreti et al ., 2013; Kusunoki et al ., 2015; McCrystall et al ., 2021). Given that these high‐intensity events pose the greatest threats to Arctic ecosystems, the built environment, and human activities and that significant infrastructure gaps and vulnerabilities exist in the Canadian Arctic (Canadian Climate Institute, 2022), a focus on the characteristics of extreme events—and the apparent mismatch between observations and model projections—should also be a high research priority.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies relied on gauge records, while others relied on output from atmospheric reanalysis products. Most recently, Yu and Zhong (2021) examined trends in seasonal precipitation and extremes over the 1979–2016 period based on output from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis. While more regions were found to have statistically significant positive (rather than negative) trends, especially in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean and the northern North Atlantic, negative trends were more the rule in areas of northern Eurasia and North America.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of extreme daily precipitation events over the Canadian Arctic

Voveris

Barrett

Fox

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Given growing interest in extreme high-latitude weather events, we use records from nine meteorological stations and atmospheric reanalysis data to examine extreme daily precipitation events (leading, 99th and 95th percentile) over Arctic Canada. Leading events span 90 mm at Cape Dyer, along the southeast coast of Baffin Island, to 26 mm at Sachs Harbour, on the southwest coast of Banks Island. The 95th percentiles range from 20 to 30% of leading event sizes. Extreme events are most common on or near the month of climatological peak precipitation. Contrasting with Eurasian continental sites having a July precipitation peak corresponding to the seasonal peak in precipitable water, seasonal cycles in precipitation and the frequency of extremes over Arctic Canada are more varied, reflecting marine influences. At Cape Dyer and Clyde River, mean precipitation and the frequency of extremes peak in October when the atmosphere is quickly cooling, promoting strong evaporation from Baffin Bay. At all stations, leading events involved snowfall and strong winds and were associated with cyclone passages (mostly of relatively strong storms). They also involved strong vapour fluxes, sometimes associated with atmospheric rivers or their remnants. The most unusual sequence of events identified here occurred at Clyde River, where the three largest recorded precipitation events occurred in April of 1977. Obtaining first-hand accounts of this series of events has proven elusive. Identified links between extreme events and atmospheric rivers demonstrates the need to better understand how the characteristics of such features will change in the future.

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Trends in Arctic seasonal and extreme precipitation in recent decades

Cited by 15 publications

References 81 publications

Increase in precipitation scavenging contributes to long-term reductions of black carbon in the Arctic

Increase in precipitation scavenging contributes to long-term reductions of black carbon in the Arctic

Characterizing Uncertainty in Pan‐Arctic Land‐Ocean Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux: Insights From the Onega River, Russia

Characteristics of extreme daily precipitation events over the Canadian Arctic

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