Trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Scotland: description and possible explanations

Abstract

Summary Secular and cohort trends in mortality from cancer in Scotland during 1953-93, and incidence during 1960-90, were analysed using individual records from the national mortality and registration files. For certain cancer sites, the secular analyses of mortality were extended back to 1911 by use of published data. Mortality from cancer at older ages in Scotland has increased over the last 40 years. In each sex, this trend has been dominated by the effects of smoking: all-cancer rates and rates of lung cancer, now the most common fatal cancer in men and in women in Scotland, reached a peak in the cohort of men born at the turn of the century and the cohort of women born in the 1920s. For much of the period, the Scottish all-age rates of lung cancer were the highest reported in the world; they are now decreasing on a secular basis in men, but are still increasing in women. There have also been large increases at older ages in the incidence and mortality rates for cancer of the prostate in recent years, bladder cancer, nervous system cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, myeloma and leukaemia; for each there is likely to be a considerable artefactual element to the increase, with differing degrees of possibility that there may in addition be an element of real increase. Substantial decreases in mortality at all ages have occurred for stomach and colorectal cancers and substantial increases at all ages for pleural cancer and melanoma. Rates of mortality from breast cancer, the most common cancer in women in Scotland, have generally increased over the past 80 years; a temporary cessation in this upward trend occurred in the years during and after the Second World War, and recently rates have turned downward, probably at least in part because of better treatment. Mortality from ovarian cancer, the second most common reproductive-related female tumour in Scotland, has also increased at older ages. At younger ages, mortality from cancer in Scotland has decreased, especially in men, whereas incidence has not. This divergence, which has been a consequence of better treatment, has occurred especially for cancers of the testis and ovary, Hodgkin's disease and leukaemia. There have been increases at young adult ages, however, in both mortality from and incidence of oral and pharyngeal, oesophageal and laryngeal cancers in men, and melanoma and nonHodgkin's lymphoma in each sex. Cervical cancer rates at young ages also increased, but this trend has reversed for incidence in the most recent birth cohorts. Incidence rates have also increased for testicular cancer in young adults and leukaemia in children. With the possible exceptions of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and childhood leukaemia, the increasing rates are likely largely to reflect real rises in incidence, and they highlight the need for investigation of the causes of these cancers, and, when causes are known, for preventive action. Keywords: cancer trends; incidence; mortality; Scotland Trends in cancer incidence and mortality are of interest both for epidemiology and for cli...

Nodal/Cripto signaling in fetal male germ cell development: implications for testicular germ cell tumors

“…Approximately 10-15% of GCTs are mixed tumors, containing both SE and NS histologies (Ulbright 1999). The incidence of Type II germ cell tumors has doubled over the last four decades without an obvious explanation (Giwercman et al 1993;McGlynn et al 2005;Richiardi et al 2004;Shah et al 2007;Swerdlow et al 1998).…”

Association of testicular germ cell tumor with polymorphisms in estrogen receptor and steroid metabolism genes

“…About 95% of all TCs are represented by testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs), and seminoma accounts for about 50% of them. Epidemiological hallmarks of TGCT include a peak incidence in a very young adult age, a markedly increasing incidence worldwide (Giwercman et al 1993, Swerdlow et al 1998) but with striking geographic and ethnic differences, and association with other reproductive conditions, such as cryptorchidism, testicular atrophy, and infertility (Horwich et al 2006, Rajpert-De Meyts 2006.…”

Tendência de mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero para o Estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil, 1980-2005

“…Por meio destas figuras, pode-se visualizar que, apesar de a redução na mortalidade ter sido observada tanto para o conjunto dos dados quanto para cada patologia isoladamente, tal redução foi mais acentuada na mortalidade por câncer de útero porção não especificada. 4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13,16,17,18,19 , sugerindo melhora no acesso a métodos de diagnóstico e tratamento oportunos e adequados nos locais e períodos considerados.…”