Trends in forest carbon offset markets in United States

Abstract

Natural climate solutions are gaining international policy attention - with forests highlighted as a primary pathway for storing carbon. However, evaluations of additional carbon benefits and the permanence of forest carbon offsets projects remain scarce. In response, we compiled a novel database to analyze trends in existing forest management projects from the two largest offset project registries in the only carbon market in United States. We find that improved forest management projects represent 96% of all credits from forestry projects and 58% of all credits and span diverse practices with different potential for carbon storage. Our results also show that 26% of existing forest C offsets in the US are at risk from wildfire. From a policy perspective, our results underscore the need for more sophisticated insurance mechanisms for forest carbon offset reversals, and for a framework to monitor and evaluate cumulative and future carbon benefits of forest-based offset projects.