Trends in High-Daily Precipitation Events in Jakarta and the Flooding of January 2014

Siswanto, Siswanto; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Schrier, Gerard van der; Lenderink, Geert; Hurk, Bart van den

doi:10.1175/bams-d-15-00128.1

Cited by 32 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…This factor is very similar when the series are normalised to the same mean first. This decrease is surprising, as similar fits to observations in the Netherlands (unpublished), southern France 5 (Vautard et al, 2015) and Jakarta (Siswanto et al, 2015) showed clear increases. A possible cause would be lack of moisture availability as this region is much further from the oceans than the three examples above.…”

supporting

confidence: 83%

Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change

Oldenborgh

Philip

Aalbers

et al. 2016

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The extreme precipitation that would result in historic flooding across areas of northeastern France and southern Germany began on May 26th when a large cut-off low spurred the development of several slow moving low pressure disturbances.The precipitation took different forms in each country. Warm and humid air from the south fueled sustained, large-scale, heavy rainfall over France resulting in significant river flooding on the Seine and Loire (and their tributaries), whereas the rain came from smaller clusters of intense thunderstorms in Germany triggering flash floods in mountainous areas. The floods left tens 5 of thousands without power, caused over a billion Euros in damage in France alone, and are reported to have killed at least 18 people in Germany, France, Romania, and Belgium. The extreme nature of this event left many asking whether anthropogenic climate change may have played a role. To answer this question objectively, a rapid attribution analysis was performed in near-real time, using the best available observational data and climate models.In this rapid attribution study, where results were completed and released to the public in one week and an additional week to 10

show abstract

supporting

confidence: 83%

Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change

Oldenborgh

Philip

Aalbers

et al. 2016

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In general, Indonesia can be divided into three main climatic patterns by looking at the rainfall patterns for a year. This is supported by research conducted by [2] regarding the classification of Indonesia's climate into three rainfall patterns. The three patterns include Monsoonal Patterns, Equatorial Patterns, and Local Patterns (Anti Monsoonal).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

The FLOOD DISASTER MANAGEMENT BASED ON EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL IN DECADES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDONESIA

Gernowo

Nurwidyanto

2021

Int. J. Eng. Sci. Tech

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Indonesia's climate classification is divided into three rainfall patterns. The three patterns are Seasonal Pattern, Equatorial Pattern, and Local Pattern (Anti Seasonal). Flood Disaster Management based on extreme rainfall is very much needed, as the analysis was taken as a case study on January 22, 2019, a flood disaster occurred in South Sulawesi. The flood event indicated that there was heavy rain that flushed the South Sulawesi region for several days, which is classified as monsoonal rainfall. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of heavy rain with atmospheric anomalies during these events by calculating rainfall intensity to determine future flooding patterns and using the WRF model to analyze cloud distribution patterns and rainfall distribution. The method used in this research is Mononobe and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) using the Fabric Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme. The analysis showed that the intensity and duration of rainfall of 2, 5 10, 25, and 50 years were obtained from the Mononobe model, as well as from the atmospheric dynamics data, there was rain for 3 consecutive days caused by cumulonimbus type rain clouds. Based on the WRF model, it can be seen that the CAPE value before the onset of rain is quite significant, thus supporting the growth of rain clouds as an important variable in flood disaster management in the South Sulawesi region in particular and the tropical zone in. general. Motivation/Background: Indonesia is included in a tropical climate where extreme rainfall is important to analyze. The majority of flood disasters in the tropics occur in decades of extreme atmosphere, this is an important reason in this study. Method: The Mononobe method can be used to calculate the distribution pattern of rainfall intensity throughout 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, as a prediction of future rainfall intensity patterns. The WRF model is used to calculate the cloud distribution pattern and the spatial distribution of rainfall. Results: The results of this study obtained patterns of rainfall intensity and duration of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years from the Mononobe model, as well as from the atmospheric dynamics data, there was rain for 3 consecutive days caused by cumulonimbus rain clouds. The pattern of cloud distribution and rainfall at the time of the incident at the WRF model research location. Conclusions: Analysis of the distribution pattern of rainfall intensity for the periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, as well as the distribution pattern of clouds and rainfall, is very necessary for disaster identification, especially hydrometeorology. This is very important as a variable in flood disaster management, especially in the tropics

show abstract

“…As part of Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC), the GJ area is located in the tropical monsoon climate zone that is characterized as a hot and humid place due to its location close to the equator and it is classified dominantly as monsoon season, so the city has distinct wet and dry seasons. These seasonal circulation features are clearly recognized in the annual cycle of observed Jakarta rainfall in history data where rainfall reaches monthly average values above 150 mm in December-March, and below 100 mm during June to September (Siswanto et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…The previous studies revealed a crucial factor generating heavy rainfall over the GJ, i.e., a strong and persistent trans-equatorial monsoonal flow from the Northern Hemisphere (Wu et al 2007;Trilaksono et al 2011Trilaksono et al , 2012Siswanto et al 2015), a strong and coherent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity (Hidayat and Kizu 2010;Hattori et al 2011;Wu et al 2013), and also intensive low-level wind convergence around the GJ (Wu et al 2013). Under these particular atmospheric conditions, convective clouds developed at greater height, which favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall over the study area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…However, these parameters do not guarantee that there would be support for the convection processes. They are part of the larger scale circulation, i.e., strong monsoonal flow (Wu et al 2007, Trilaksono et al 2011, 2012Siswanto et al 2015), strong MJO (Hidayat and Kizu 2010;Hattori et al 2011;Wu et al 2013) and normal ENSO (ONI = − 0.4), also supporting the convection development.…”

Section: The Mechanisms Of Mcs Developmentmentioning

confidence: 92%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Characteristics of two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Greater Jakarta: case of heavy rainfall period 15–18 January 2013

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Two different mesoscale convective system (MCS) events that produced the heavy rainfall over the Greater Jakarta (GJ) during 15-18 January 2013 period were investigated. The purpose of the present study is to analyze the atmospheric conditions of two different MCSs during the heavy rainfall. Data consist of 3 hourly rainfalls of meteorological stations, infrared satellite, sounding, 6-hourly surface wind and reanalysis data. The first MCS was developed at 16:00 LT on 14 January 2013 over the eastern coast of Sumatra covered an area of 249,732 km 2 at maximum size, with about 16 h durations. The next MCS was developed at 22:00 LT on 16 January 2013 over the northern coast of the GJ in 9 h of duration, and maximum covered area around 55,829 km 2 . A warmer and moist air was observed on the low-level layer in the evening of 16 January 2013 (prior of second MCS), in comparison to 14 January 2013 event. Combination of both the surface strong wind perturbation and equivalent potential temperature in the second MCS might be contributed to heavy rainfall over the GJ than the first one. which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

show abstract

Trends in High-Daily Precipitation Events in Jakarta and the Flooding of January 2014

Cited by 32 publications

References 8 publications

Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change

Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change

The FLOOD DISASTER MANAGEMENT BASED ON EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL IN DECADES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDONESIA

Characteristics of two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Greater Jakarta: case of heavy rainfall period 15–18 January 2013

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About