Trends in hourly rainfall statistics in the United States under a warming climate

Muschinski, Thomas; Katz, J. I.

doi:10.1038/nclimate1828

Cited by 39 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…For simplicity, we use moment ratios s M and P M as estimators of the cutoffs s L (Peters et al, ; SN14; see also Muschinski and Katz, ) and P L for most of the rest of the paper. These moments ratio are defined as

s_{M} = \frac{< s^{2} >}{< s >}, P_{M} = \frac{< P^{2} >}{< P >} .

…”

Section: Accumulation and Daily Precipitation Distributions And Cutofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States

Martinez‐Villalobos

Neelin

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Precipitation accumulations, integrated over precipitation events in hourly data, are examined from 1979 to 2013 over the contiguous United States during the warm season (May–October). As expected from theory, accumulation distributions have a characteristic shape, with an approximate power law decrease with event size followed by an exponential drop at a characteristic cutoff scale sL for each location. This cutoff is a predictor of the highest accumulation percentiles and of a similarly defined daily precipitation cutoff PL. Comparing 1997–2013 and 1979–1995 periods, there are significant regional increases in sL in several regions. This yields distribution changes that are weighted disproportionately toward extreme accumulations. In the Northeast, for example, risk ratio (conditioned on occurrence) for accumulations larger than 109 mm increases by a factor of 2–4 (5th–95th). These changes in risk ratio as a function of size, and connection to underlying theory, have counterparts in the observed daily precipitation trends.

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s_{M} = \frac{< s^{2} >}{< s >}, P_{M} = \frac{< P^{2} >}{< P >} .

…”

Section: Accumulation and Daily Precipitation Distributions And Cutofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States

Martinez‐Villalobos

Neelin

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…This is evidently dependent on the provision of high‐quality observations, something lacking for many regions of the world (Westra et al , ), and so an understanding of recent changes and the important processes and drivers has been limited when compared with daily timescales. Some regional studies have been undertaken, for example, for India (Sen Roy, ; Deshpande et al , ), South Africa (Sen Roy and Rouault, ), Australia (Jakob et al , ; Westra and Sisson, ), Japan (Fujibe et al , ), Hong Kong (Lenderink et al , ), the United States (Muschinski and Katz, ), The Netherlands (Lenderink et al , ) and Ireland (Leahy and Kiely, ). Generally, the examination of sub‐daily precipitation has focussed on the scaling relationship of rainfall intensities with temperature (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

Blenkinsop

Lewis

Chan

et al. 2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non‐operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short‐duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub‐daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near‐complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n‐largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub‐daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality‐controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality‐control procedures for sub‐daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high‐resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall.

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“…The mean logarithmic slope, assuming 1218 independent sites with Gaussian statistics, is (−6.0 ± 0.3) × 10 − 4 per year, nominally significant at a level of 20 σ , where the estimated statistical uncertainty ignores the (uncertain) correlations between sites. Use of a database of 1218 sites gives a statistical power not found in earlier studies (Muschinski and Katz, , ) of a small number of sites. In addition to this mean trend, Figure shows evident regional differences, with increasing aridity at many Western sites and in parts of the Southeast, but rapidly decreasing aridity in much of the 85 ∘ –100 ∘ W band and the Northeast.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Decreasing US aridity in a warming climate

Finkel

Canel-Katz

Katz³

2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The mean North American and world climates have warmed since the 19th century following the anthropogenic emission of large quantities of greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that this warming may increase the frequency or severity of droughts. We define a quantitative and objective aridity index that describes the precipitation forcing function of drought. Using the extensive historical database of precipitation records, we evaluate changes in the aridity in the 48 contiguous United States. The area-averaged mean fractional rate of change of aridity of 1218 sites in the period 1893-2013 was (−6.6 ± 0.4) × 10 − 4 per year; the 48 contiguous United States became less arid. The rate of decrease of aridity was roughly consistent with expectations from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and the rate of warming. The fractional rate of change of aridity was nearly uncorrelated with the aridity itself, but there were regional differences: many Western and coastal Southeastern sites showed increasing aridity, but regions of rapidly decreasing aridity were found in a band 85 ∘ -100 ∘ W and the Northeast.

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Trends in hourly rainfall statistics in the United States under a warming climate

Cited by 39 publications

References 22 publications

Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States

Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States

Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

Decreasing US aridity in a warming climate

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