Trends in Leadership Succession and Regime Change in African Politics since Independence

Abstract

It is the passion for equality which is at the root of sedition.… When one begins with an initial error it is inevitable that one should end badly. —Aristotle Leadership succession and regime change lie at the center of two perennial problems of governance: (1) how to ensure the political continuity of any regime without endangering the political stability of the political community; (2) how to protect both the regime and the political community against the natural disposition of those in power to manipulate their office so that they could extend their terms of office or succeed themselves against the provisions of written or unwritten rules of managing political power and succession rights. There can be little doubt, then, that the political acts that surround leadership succession and regime change constitute a most serious aspect of political life in any society. In all political systems in general, and in African politics in particular, such acts constitute an important index of the development or deterioration of politics. The renewed focus on Africa since the middle 1950s as a subject of political inquiry and theorizing has contributed greatly to the existing body of literature on political development, modernization and related subfields of Comparative Politics. Unfortunately, this rather extensive body of literature has not provided us with a definitive knowledge of the dynamics of social and political change. In this regard, major events in African politics have continued to cast doubts on the validity of many an earlier theoretical formulation and expectation.

Nigeria’s 2007 General Elections and Succession Crisis: Implications for the Nascent Democracy

“…For example, we can study succession at the city (mayoral) level, country level, state level (succession of congressional representatives or governors), or at the national level (national congressional succession, Supreme Court succession and presidential succession), which is the focus of this study. In a nutshell, leadership succession exists, for example, whenever the head of the government is replaced by another person (Anise 1974). In the same vein, there is leadership succession when there is a transfer of power from one party to another but without major policy or ideological changes.…”

“…In the same vein, there is leadership succession when there is a transfer of power from one party to another but without major policy or ideological changes. In his typology of leadership succession Ladun Anise (1974) classified (a) conditional and (b) unconditional procedures of leadership succession. He went further to state that, in the African context, there are five types of leadership succession: assassination, coup d'état, abdication and/or resignation, and constitutional procedures.…”

Democracy and Succession Problems in Nigeria: The fourth Republic Experience

“…The essence of election was recognized by the international community to the extent that it established international criterion or benchmark to be embraced (IPU, 1994). In establishing relationship between leadership stability and potentiality for development in a state, Anise (1974) and Goldsmith (2000) identified five types of leadership succession in Africa as: assassination, coup d'état, abdication and or resignation, and constitutional procedures. Failure to effectively manage any of these types can result in succession crisis.…”