Trends in lung cancer incidence by gender, histological type and stage at diagnosis in Japan, 1993 to 2015: A multiple imputation approach

Abstract

Continued decrease in smoking prevalence and increasing use of sensitive diagnostic procedures necessitate updated monitoring of trends in lung cancer incidence in Japan. We analyzed histology‐ and stage‐specific trends in 1993 to 2015 using data from 62 870 diagnosed cases from the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan project. After applying a multiple imputation approach to impute missing/unknown values of stage and histology, we estimated age‐standardized incidence rates and applied joinpoint regression analyses. We observed long‐term growth trends in adenocarcinoma (ADC) and localized cancer among both genders, long‐term declining trends among men and leveling‐off trends among women in small‐cell carcinoma (SMC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC). Stratifying by gender, we observed an increase in localized ADC with average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of 4.5 (95% confidence interval: 3.9 to 5.0) and 5.7 (5.0 to 6.4), a decrease in regional ADC with AAPC of −1.5 (−2.5 to −0.6) and −2.3 (−4.6 to 0.0), but an increase in distant ADC with AAPC of 1.5 (1.1 to 1.9) and 1.6 (0.9 to 2.3) among males and females, respectively. Additionally, increasing trends in female‐to‐male incidence rate ratios were observed in localized ADC with significantly above one in the most recent diagnosis period. Our results revealed evidence for a partial shift from advanced to early cancer stage, which may suggest the modest effectiveness of nationwide organized screening programs. The observed increasing localized and distant ADC may be linked to improved diagnostic procedures, especially for metastasis detection. Further investigation is needed for more accurate quantification of these factors.

WITHDRAWN: Plasma GPI and PGD are associated with vascular normalization and may serve as novel prognostic biomarkers for lung adenocarcinoma: Multi-omics and multi-dimensional analysis

“…At the same time, the five proteins are co-upregulated at the mRNA and protein levels in tissues, which may provide clues for subsequent exploration of possible regulatory pathways. Among female lung cancer patients, the proportion of LUAD patients keeps increasing, from 54.2% in 1993-1999 to 62.3% in 2010-2015 20 . Therefore, in the first phase of this study we included only female LUAD cases and female healthy controls for proteomic analysis, with the aim of focusing on plasma protein biomarkers for female LUAD.…”

Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020–2054: An Empirical Validation Approach

“…We estimated the annual average cancer cases/deaths as the arithmetic mean of each 5-year period, and then calculated the changes in cancer cases/deaths over 2020–2054 by subtracting the annual average of period 2015–2019 from 2050–2054, and dividing them by the period 2015–2019 to determine the percentage changes. We estimated the ASIR and ASMR values using the “Standard Japanese Population in 1985” to be consistent with earlier studies in Japan [ 7 , 34 ]. Additionally, we calculated age-specific rates for eight age groups including children (aged 0–14 years), adolescents (15–19 years), young adults (20–39 years), middle-aged subjects (40–64 years), youngest-old (65–74 years), middle-old (75–84 years), and oldest-old (85+ years).…”

“…Although the majority of lung cancer cases are caused by tobacco smoking (67.5% in Japan) [ 39 ], the attributable fractions and magnitudes of association of smoking behavior to incidence rates are divergent between histological types [ 40 ]. Specifically, the considerable reduction in smoking prevalence from 1965 to 2018 among both Japanese men (from 82.3% to 27.8%) and women (from 15.5% to 8.7%) might have contributed to the reported declines in lung squamous non-small-cell carcinoma and small-cell carcinoma [ 34 , 41 ]. However, our projected leveling-off trends of lung cancer ASIR in both genders could be explained by the substantial increases in localized and distant lung adenocarcinoma, which might be connected to the recent expansion and utilization of improved diagnostic and screening techniques [ 34 ].…”

“…Specifically, the considerable reduction in smoking prevalence from 1965 to 2018 among both Japanese men (from 82.3% to 27.8%) and women (from 15.5% to 8.7%) might have contributed to the reported declines in lung squamous non-small-cell carcinoma and small-cell carcinoma [ 34 , 41 ]. However, our projected leveling-off trends of lung cancer ASIR in both genders could be explained by the substantial increases in localized and distant lung adenocarcinoma, which might be connected to the recent expansion and utilization of improved diagnostic and screening techniques [ 34 ]. In contrast, the increasing incidence rates of colorectal cancer in both genders could be explained by the spread of Westernized lifestyles [ 42 ] or the introduction of organized screening programs (fecal occult blood test) [ 43 ].…”

Trends in, projections of, and inequalities in non-communicable disease management indicators in Vietnam 2010–2030 and progress toward universal health coverage: A Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels

“… 35 , 36 In this study, we applied multiple imputation using the fully conditional specification (FCS) basis and predictive mean matching (PMM) algorithm for reducing bias in estimating trends and inequalities. 37 …”