Trends in Maximum Daily Rainfall in Marginal Desert Environment: Signs of Climate Change

Abstract

Problem statement: Change in intense precipitation has been used as an indicator for anticipated climate change. The trend in maximum daily rainfall in 10 rainfall stations distributed in the north and north east of Jordan has been investigated. Based on mean annual rainfall and geographic location, rainfall stations were divided into subhumid, semi-arid and arid stations. Approach: The regression approach T-test and Mann-Kendall test were used to investigate significant trends in maximum daily rainfall. Logistic regression model used to test the trends in the frequency of heavy rainfall. Based on p-vales, significant trends were determined. Results: The results show that pronounced significant decreasing trend is observed in three out of four semi-arid stations used in this study. In arid stations, only one station out of three show significant increasing trend. However, none of the three subhumid stations used in the study show any significant trend. Logistic regression test for readings above 90th percentile among the maximum daily rainfall shows significant downward trend only in the semi-arid stations. Conclusion: The results of this study confirm that semi-arid zone is more vulnerable to climate change. Serious actions to mitigate and adapt to climate changes should be given a priority in the semi-arid zone. Redistribution of daily rainfall intensity will have a significant impact on water resources management.

Variability and Trend of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall in Northern Algeria

“…This decrease in annual rainfall was accompanied by a large temporal irregularity like the Mediterranean region [28,29]. In terms of AMDR values, coefficients of variation for the different sites vary at ±12% around the average of 44% showing a more pronounced irregularity occurrence, but in the same proportions as in other regions [30][31][32]. Indeed, the skewness values of the time series, which show if the empirical distribution of the data follows a normal distribution, are more important in the extreme east of the country than in the west and the center (a ratio of 1.66).…”

“…For example, it had increased in the USA, China, Australia, Canada, Norway, Mexico, and Poland [47], where no clear trend was detected in other regions such as in Brazil and Ethiopia [7,48]. Although a general trend for drought and a reduction in rainfall intensity was predicted for eastern Mediterranean [49], the extreme precipitation trend is more misunderstood as in Jordan [32].…”

The Variability of Maximum Daily Precipitation and the Underlying Circulation Conditions in Kraków, Southern Poland

“…This study focuses on the climatological analysis of precipitation maxima based on a secular series of measurements from Kraków. The subject matter in question is important from both a theoretical and a practical point of view [7][8][9]. Like many other cities in Poland and worldwide, Kraków has been experiencing increasingly frequent events of heavy precipitation [10,11], known to often result in flash floods, which pose a serious threat to the local population.…”

Seasonal Drought Dynamics in El-Beheira Governorate, Egypt

“…Accordingly, Drought is a temporary imbalance in water availability related to precipitation lower than the required averages and it occurs in most climatic regions with various frequencies, severity and duration. Studies related to the change of the precipitation were performed in different places around the world (Samdi and Zghoul, 2006;Hamdi et al, 2009;Al-Qudah and Smadi, 2011;Gao and Hou, 2012).…”