Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Şensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader M.; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Ali, Mohammad Karam; Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal Said; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Khelet, Imad Al Dean; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa V.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor W. R.

doi:10.1029/2005jd006181

Cited by 471 publications

(412 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…For instance, Türkeş et al (2002) also indicated significant warming of the minimum temperatures in many regions of Turkey, but only weak trends in maximum temperatures for the period 1929-1999. Zhang et al (2005) found decreasing frost days for 52 stations across the Middle East since the 1980s. Kostopoulou and Jones (2005) showed decreasing trends for the frequency of cold nights in winter and especially in summer over the period 1958-2000 in the eastern Mediterranean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950–2010

Erlat

Türkeş

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines the climatology of annual frost days, and analyses the size and behaviour of the longterm variability and trends in annual numbers of frost day at the 72 stations over Turkey from 1950 to 2010. The main results are summarized as follows: (1) The annual number of frost days has evidently decreased at most of the stations with some observed regional differences, (2) The decreasing trends are largest over the Eastern Anatolia, the Marmara regions and along the Mediterranean coastline. The meteorological stations located in the continental northeast and the easternmost parts of the Anatolian Peninsula, including Ardahan, Iǧdır and Van, show a negative linear trend with a rate of four days per decade, (3) As in other regions of the Earth, changes in number of frost days are very likely associated with changes in minimum air temperatures and increasing growing season lengths in Turkey, (4) The decreasing trends in number of frost days also indicated considerable decadal-scale variability. This variability is very likely attributable to the large-scale atmospheric circulation and atmospheric oscillations such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Sea-Caspian Pattern, (5) Consequently, the long-winter (DJFM) composites of number of frost days were examined for extreme phases of the AO index during the period 1950-2010 in order to assess the influence of atmospheric oscillations on year-to-year variability in number of frost days. According to the Cramer's t k test, winter number of frost days tended to increase significantly during the high (positive) index AO phase, while they tended to decrease significantly during the low (negative) index AO phase. These relationships are statistically significant at the 1% level at the majority of stations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950–2010

Erlat

Türkeş

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The two-phase regression model was applied to annual mean daily maximum, minimum temperature as well as daily temperature range, to identify potential inhomogeneities in the data [X. Zhang et al, 2005]. Once a possible step change is identified in the annual series, it is also checked against the station history.…”

Section: You Et Al: Changes In Climate Extremes In the Tibetan Plateaumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhang et al, 2005], Central America and northern South American [Aguilar et al, 2005], and central and south Asia [Klein Tank et al, 2006]. Global changes in daily climate extremes have been analyzed [Alexander et al, 2006;Frich et al, 2002].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005

et al. 2008

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[1] Changes in indices of climate extremes are analyzed on the basis of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation at 71 meteorological stations with elevation above 2000 m above sea level in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (TP) during . Twelve indices of extreme temperature and nine indices of extreme precipitation are examined. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming during the studied period, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Stations in the northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern TP have larger trend magnitudes. The regional occurrence of extreme cold days and nights has decreased by À0.85 and À2.38 d/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme warm days and nights has increased by 1.26 and 2.54 d/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days shows statistically significant decreasing at the rate of À4.32 and À2.46 d/decade, respectively. The length of growing season has statistically increased by 4.25 d/decade. The diurnal temperature range exhibits a statistically decreasing trend at a rate of À0.20°C per decade. The extreme temperature indices also show statistically significant increasing trends, with larger values for the index describing variations in the lowest minimum temperature. In general, warming trends in minimum temperature indices are of greater magnitude than those for maximum temperature. Most precipitation indices exhibit increasing trends in the southern and northern TP and show decreasing trends in the central TP. On average, regional annual total precipitation, heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, average wet days precipitation, and total precipitation on extreme wet days show nonsignificant increases. Decreasing trends are found for maximum 5-day precipitation, consecutive wet days, and consecutive dry days, but only the last is statistically significant.

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“…Moreover, the changes are not always steady or monotonic. Thus, other studies have focused on particular subregions of the Mediterranean such as Spain (Brunet et al, 2007;Rodríguez-Puebla et al, 2010), Italy (Baldi et al, 2006;Bartolini et al, 2008;Toreti and Desiato, 2008), Eastern Mediterranean (Founda et al, 2004;Kostopoulou and Jones, 2005;Kuglitsch et al, 2010), and the Levant and northern parts of Egypt and Libya (Domroes and El-Tantawi, 2005;Zhang et al, 2005;Sensoy et al, 2007;El Kenawy et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Mediterranean gridded temperature extremes and large-scale circulation influences

Efthymiadis

Goodess

Jones

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

110

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Abstract. Two recently-available daily gridded datasets are used to investigate trends in Mediterranean temperature extremes since the mid-20th century. The underlying trends are found to be generally consistent with global trends of temperature and their extremes: cold extremes decrease and warm/hot extremes increase. This consistency is better manifested in the western part of the Mediterranean where changes are most pronounced since the mid-1970s. In the eastern part, a cooling is observed, with a near reversal in the last two decades. This inter-basin discrepancy is clearer in winter, while in summer changes are more uniform and the west-east difference is restricted to the rate of increase of warm/hot extremes, which is higher in central and eastern parts of the Mediterranean over recent decades. Linear regression and correlation analysis reveals some influence of major large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on the occurrence of these extremes -both in terms of trend and interannual variability. These relationships are not, however, able to account for the most striking features of the observations -in particular the intensification of the increasing trend in warm/hot extremes, which is most evident over the last 15-20 yr in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean.

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Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

Cited by 471 publications

References 22 publications

Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950–2010

Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950–2010

Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005

Trends in Mediterranean gridded temperature extremes and large-scale circulation influences

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