Trends in Precipitation Maxima at U.S. Historical Climatology Network Stations: 1893-2010

Heineman, Mitch

doi:10.1061/9780784412312.201

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Upward trends in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation in these regions are well documented by numerous studies (e.g. Kunkel et al, 1999;Kunkel, 2003;DeGaetano, 2009;Groisman et al, 2012;Heineman, 2012). The most recent assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation in these regions will likely continue to increase throughout the 21st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

A multi-step approach for downscaling daily precipitation extremes from historical analogues

Castellano

DeGaetano

2015

Int. J. Climatol.

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A unique approach for downscaling daily precipitation extremes from historical analogues is presented. While various analogue methods have been developed for the purpose of downscaling local climate data, few have placed an emphasis on downscaling daily extremes. Unlike previous approaches, the new method utilizes a two-step procedure in which the occurrence of extreme precipitation on a given target day is first determined based on the observed probability of extreme precipitation on that day's closest historical analogue days. Then, if extreme precipitation occurred on the selected analogue day, the historical precipitation observations associated with the analogue day are used to ascribe precipitation amounts on the corresponding target day. The method is developed and tested for a very strict definition of extreme precipitation (partial duration series events), as well as a more lenient definition of extreme precipitation (95th percentile of non-zero precipitation events). The analogue approach is more skillful than climatology at identifying the occurrence of both partial duration series (PDS) and 95th percentile events. In both cases, the analogue method slightly underestimates the observed occurrence of extreme precipitation. Return period precipitation amounts estimated from the downscaled PDS are similar to, but generally lower than those calculated from observed PDS. Over the entire study domain (157 stations in New York State and surrounding regions of adjacent states and Canada), the median difference between downscaled and observed 5-year (100-year) return period precipitation amounts is less than 5% (10%). These median differences are smaller than those obtained from historical dynamically downscaled climate model simulations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

A multi-step approach for downscaling daily precipitation extremes from historical analogues

Castellano

DeGaetano

2015

Int. J. Climatol.

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“…These types of changes, either individually or combined, could dramatically effect overflows and flooding in sewer systems. Figure 6 illustrates a graph taken from a study by Heineman (2012). This study analyzed daily data from 1893 to 2010 for the 1,100-stations in the U.S.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Master Planning Collection Systems in a Time of Uncertainty: Climate Change, Adaptive Management, and Defining New Levels of Service

Dent¹,

Deslauriers²

2013

proc water environ fed

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Regardless of the cause of climate change, it is occurring and municipalities across the country will need to adapt to the changing conditions. The two major impacts of climate change affecting collection systems are sea level rise (SLR) and changes in precipitation patterns. Another factor that compounds the effects of SLR is storm surge. Historically, precipitation patterns have exhibited stationarity, meaning the statistical patterns have insignificantly deviated over an extended time period. Since the assumption of stationarity of precipitation patterns in the future may no longer be appropriate, historic collection system level of service (LOS) metrics, such as design storms, may need to be adjusted in the future. This paper discusses how adaptive management can help in defining new LOS for the next generation of collection system master plans, which are needed to protect our extensive sewer infrastructure and increase resiliency in a changing climate. Climate change predictions as well as adaptive measures developed by several municipalities are highlighted.

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“…A practical consequence of these increases in extreme precipitation frequency (DeGaetano 2009;Groisman 1992;Heineman 2012;Kunkel et al 1999;Kunkel 2003) is that the assumption of a stationary climate record compromises the specifications used to design infrastructure. For example, DeGaetano (2009) reports that rainfall amounts once considered to be 1-in-100-yr events, as based on the data record available from 1950 to 1978, occur as often as once every 67 years as based on data observed across the Northeast from 1978 to 2008 and with even greater frequency through the twenty-first century (e.g., DeGaetano and Castellano 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Changes in Average Recurrence Interval Precipitation Extremes in the Mid-Atlantic United States

DeGaetano

Tran

2022

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence have emerged as one of the more consistent climate trends in recent decades, particularly in the eastern United States. Such changes challenge the veracity of the conventional assumption of stationarity that has been applied in the published extreme rainfall analyses that are the foundation for engineering design assessments and resiliency planning. Using partial duration series with varying record lengths, temporal changes in daily and hourly rainfall extremes corresponding to average annual recurrence probabilities ranging from 50% (i.e. the 2-year storm) to 1% (i.e. the 100-year storm) are evaluated. From 2000 through 2019, extreme rainfall amounts across a range of durations and recurrence probabilities have increased at 75% of the long-term precipitation observation stations in the Middle-Atlantic region. At about a quarter of the stations, increases in extreme rainfall have exceeded 5% from 2000 through 2019, with some stations experiencing increases in excess of 10% for both daily and hourly durations. At over 40% of the stations the rainfall extremes based on the 1950-1999 partial duration series show a significant (p >0.90) change in the 100-yr ARI relative to the 1950-2019 period. Collectively the results indicate that given recent trends in extreme rainfall, routine updates of extreme rainfall analyses are warranted on 20-year intervals.

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Trends in Precipitation Maxima at U.S. Historical Climatology Network Stations: 1893-2010

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

A multi-step approach for downscaling daily precipitation extremes from historical analogues

A multi-step approach for downscaling daily precipitation extremes from historical analogues

Master Planning Collection Systems in a Time of Uncertainty: Climate Change, Adaptive Management, and Defining New Levels of Service

Recent Changes in Average Recurrence Interval Precipitation Extremes in the Mid-Atlantic United States

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