Trends in selective abortions of girls in India: analysis of nationally representative birth histories from 1990 to 2005 and census data from 1991 to 2011

Abstract

Summary Background India's 2011 census revealed a growing imbalance between the numbers of girls and boys at ages 0–6 years, which we hypothesise is due to increased prenatal sex determination followed by selective abortion of female foetuses. Methods We examined sex ratios by birth order among 0.25 million births in three rounds of the nationally-representative National Family Health Survey covering the period from 1990 to 2005. We estimated totals of selective female abortion by examining the birth cohorts of children aged 0–6 years in the 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses. Findings The conditional sex ratio for second order births when the firstborn was a girl fell from 906 per 1000 boys in 1990 (99%CI 798–1013) to 836 in 2005 (99%CI 733–939); an annual decline of 0.5% (p for trend=0·001). Declines were much greater in mothers with 10 or more years of education than in illiterate mothers, and in wealthier households compared to poorer households. In contrast, no significant declines were noted in the sex ratio for second order births if the firstborn was a male, or for firstborns. Between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, more than twice the number of Indian districts (local administrative areas) showed declines in the child sex ratio as districts showing no change or increases. After adjusting for excess mortality rates in girls, the estimated number of selective female abortions rose from 0 to 2.0 million in the 1980s, 1.2 to 4.1 million in the 1990s, and 3.1 to 6.0 in the 2000s. Each 1% decline in child sex ratio at ages 0–6 years implied 1.2 to 3.6 million more selective female abortions. Selective female abortions totalled about 4.2 to 12.1 million from 1980–2010, with a greater rate of increase in the 1990s than in the 2000s. Interpretation Selective abortion of female foetuses, especially for pregnancies following a firstborn girl, has increased substantially in India. Most of India's population now live in states where selective female abortion is common. Funding US National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institute of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute.

Determinants of gender preference among women of Belagavi: a cross sectional study

“…On a contrary, a study conducted by Jha et al showed, the decline in conditional sex ratio for second-order births when the first born was a girl were much greater in mothers with 10 or more years of education than in mothers with no education, and in wealthier households compared with poorer households. 11 Whereas, no decline was detected in sex ratio for second order births if the first born was a boy. In our study, increase in the awareness about the PCPNDT Act and the immorality of gender selection may be a reason among the literate and economically sound women for not disclosing son preference.…”

The relationship between women's paid employment and women's stated son preference in India

“…Past research indicates that stated son preferences from NFHS-1 match state-level sex ratios from the 1990 Indian census (Bhat, Mari, and Zavier 2003). However, stated son preferences have started to fall in recent history (Retherford and Roy 2003), while sex ratios remain skewed towards males (Jha et al 2011). …”

“…The combination of increasingly prevalent sex-selective abortion technologies and increasing resources of a rising middle class allows more Indian women to select out of having daughters, even though social norms concerning son preference are weakening (Kashyap and Villavicencio 2016;Jha et al 2011;Arnold, Kishor, and Roy 2002;Retherford and Roy 2003). Thus, changes in stated son preferences might reflect the start of long-standing social processes that will eventually translate into declining sex ratios in India.…”

“…3 Son preference manifests itself in many forms in contemporary India, including lower nutritional and educational investment in female children, higher mortality rates for female infants, and sex ratios that are skewed towards males (Arnold, Choe, and Roy 1998;Jha et al 2011;Sen and Sengupta 1983). The prevalence of son preference has high social and economic costs, including the elevated morbidity and mortality of women and girls, a distorted marriage market, and loss of potential human capital.…”

Response to Dalal et al.

“…We have also stated that selective feticide concerns only 2-4% of pregnancies carrying a girl, but the numbers are large in absolute terms. 3 It is therefore unfortunate that Dalal et al 1 are offended by some of these statements. The statements in our review are amply supported by references to the vast number of papers and books published on the subject, 70% of which report work carried out in India by Indian authors.…”