Trends in summer extreme temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula using nonurban station data

Acero, Francisco Javier; García, José Álvarez; Gallego, M. C.; Parey, Sylvie; Dacunha-Castelle, Didier

doi:10.1002/2013jd020590

Cited by 37 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Average trend values of up to +0.7°C per decade in summer daily maximum temperature reported previously (Acero et al. ) closely match the estimated mean increase of +0.05°C per year found in this study for the Pozo Alzón weather station over 2000–2017.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Complex long‐term dynamics of pollinator abundance in undisturbed Mediterranean montane habitats over two decades

Herrera

2018

Ecological Monographs

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Current notions of “pollinator decline” and “pollination crisis” mainly arose from studies on pollinators of economic value in anthropogenic ecosystems of mid‐latitude temperate regions. Comprehensive long‐term pollinator data from biologically diverse, undisturbed communities are needed to evaluate the actual extent of the so‐called “global pollination crisis.” This paper analyzes the long‐term dynamics of pollinator abundance in undisturbed Mediterranean montane habitats using pollinator visitation data for 65 plant species collected over two decades. Objectives are (1) to elucidate patterns of long‐term changes in pollinator abundance from the perspectives of individual plant species, major pollinator groups, and the whole plant community and (2) to propose a novel methodological implementation based on combining a planned missing data design with the analytical strength of mixed effects models, which allows one to draw community‐wide inferences on long‐term pollinator trends in species‐rich natural habitats. Probabilistic measurements (“patch visitation probability” and “flower visitation probability” per time unit) were used to assess pollinator functional abundance for each plant species on two separate, randomly chosen years. A total of 13,054 pollinator censuses accounting for a total watching effort of 2,877,039 flower‐min were carried out on 299 different dates. Supra‐annual unstability in pollinator functional abundance was the rule, with visitation probability to flowering patches and/or individual flowers exhibiting significant heterogeneity between years in the majority of plant species (83%). At the plant‐community level, there was a significant linear increase in pollinator functional abundance over the study period. Probability of pollinator visitation to flowering patches and individual flowers increased due to increasing visitation by small solitary bees and, to a lesser extent, small beetles. Visitation to different plant species exhibited contrasting changes, and insect orders and genera differed widely in sign and magnitude of linear abundance trends, thus exemplifying the complex dynamics of community‐wide changes in pollinator functional abundance. Results of this investigation indicate that pollinator declines are not universal beyond anthropogenic ecosystems; stress the need for considering broader ecological scenarios and comprehensive samples of plants and pollinators; and illustrate the crucial importance of combining ambitious sampling designs with powerful analytical schemes to draw reliable inferences on pollinator trends at the plant community level.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Complex long‐term dynamics of pollinator abundance in undisturbed Mediterranean montane habitats over two decades

Herrera

2018

Ecological Monographs

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“…This coincides with the results of several earlier studies on climate change in the Mediterranean basin [2][3][4][5][6][7], which forecasted an increase in temperatures [8][9][10][11][12][13] and a reduction in summer precipitation, with concomitant increases in potential evapotranspiration (ET) and water deficit [14][15][16][17][18]. In this regard, the projections of mean atmospheric temperature and precipitation during the 21st century indicate that ecological, economic, and social disruptions are likely to occur in the future, with a drier soil and higher warming over the Mediterranean area within the summer season [19,20].…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Impact of Initial Soil Temperature Derived from Remote Sensing and Numerical Weather Prediction Datasets on the Simulation of Extreme Heat Events

et al. 2016

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Extreme heat weather events have received increasing attention and has become of special importance as they can remarkably affect sectors as diverse as public health, energy consumption, water resources, natural biodiversity and agricultural production. In this regard, summer temperatures have become a parameter of essential interest under a framework of a hypothetical increase in the number of intense-heat conditions. Thus, their forecast is a crucial aspect bearing in mind a mitigation of the effects and impacts that these intense-heat situations could produce. The current work tries to reach a better understanding of these sorts of situations that are really common over the Western Mediterranean coast. An extreme heat episode that took place in the Valencia Region in July 2009 is analysed, based on the simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This event recorded maximum temperatures exceeding 40˝C amply extended over the region besides reaching minimum temperatures up to 25.92˝C. We examine the role of improved skin and soil temperature (ST) initial conditions in the forecast results by means of different modelling and satellite-derived products. The influence of incorporating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) into RAMS is not found to produce a meaningful impact on the simulation results, independently of the resolution of the dataset used in the initial conditions of the model. In contrast, the introduction of the ST in lower levels, not only the skin temperature, has a more marked decisive effect in the simulation. Additionally, we have evaluated the influence of increasing the number of soil levels to spread deeper underground. This sensitivity experiment has revealed that more soil levels do not produce any meaningful impact on the simulation compared to the original one. In any case, RAMS is able to properly capture the observed patterns in those cases where a Western advection is widely extended over the area of study. This region's variability in orography and in distances to the sea promotes the development of sea-breeze circulations, thus producing a convergence of two opposite wind flows, a Western synoptic advection and a sea-breeze circulation. As a result, the RAMS skill in those cases where a sea breeze is well developed depends on the proper location of the boundary and convergence lines of these two flows.

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“…Extreme value theory (EVT) provides the statistical basis for increasingly widespread quantitative investigations of extremes in climate studies (Coles, 2001;Zhang et al, 2004;Brown et al, 2008;Faranda et al, 2011;Acero et al, 2014). The peaks over threshold (POT) approach aims to describe the distribution of the exceedances of the stochastic variable of interest above a threshold.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

Zahid¹,

Blender²,

Lucarini

et al. 2017

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, it is useful to gather information about the recurrence of temperature extremes. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature T max are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TW max extremes. We adopt the peaks over threshold (POT) method, which has not yet been used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed at nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA-Interim (ECMWF reanalysis) data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed T max are above 50 • C at northern stations and above 45 • C at the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TW max exceed 35 • C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA-Interim data are lower by 3 to 5 • C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA-Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.

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Trends in summer extreme temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula using nonurban station data

Cited by 37 publications

References 49 publications

Complex long‐term dynamics of pollinator abundance in undisturbed Mediterranean montane habitats over two decades

Complex long‐term dynamics of pollinator abundance in undisturbed Mediterranean montane habitats over two decades

Impact of Initial Soil Temperature Derived from Remote Sensing and Numerical Weather Prediction Datasets on the Simulation of Extreme Heat Events

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

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