Trends in the genesis and landfall locations of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal in the current global warming era

Rao, D. V. Subba; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Satyanarayana, Gubbala China

doi:10.1007/s12040-019-1227-1

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Also, several recent studies using TC track data have been conducted in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. Bell et al 2020;Bhaskar Rao et al 2019;Ge and Colle 2019;Kelly et al 2018;Liu et al 2019;Zhang et al 2020). However, whilst historical records of TC tracks, as recorded by geospatial location, have the potential to yield new insight into TC behaviour, the body of research into TC track spatial geometry and curvature and the evolution of these characteristics post-genesis is far less prevalent (Sharma et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years

2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tropical cyclones (TCs) with genesis in the Coral Sea present significant hazards to coastal regions in their surroundings. In addition, the erratic nature of TC tracks is not well understood in this region. Therefore, this study grouped Coral Sea TC tracks over the last fifty years based on K-means clustering of the maximum wind-weighted centroids. This was done in order to extract valuable new cyclone power, track curvature and location related information from their historical track records and to predict their behaviour in the light of a changing climate. TC track variance and curvature (sinuosity) were assessed. Three well-defined clusters of TC tracks were identified, and the results showed differing predominant directions of TC movement by cluster. Track sinuosity was shown to increase from east to west. Only one cluster showed a statistically significant trend (decreasing) in TC frequency. The TC power dissipation index (PDI) was used to reveal that two of the clusters have diverging trends for PDI post-2004. Based on the location of cyclone maximum intensity, only one cluster showed a statistically significant trend (towards the equator). All these findings demonstrated a clear variance in between-cluster hazard and show that TC trends discovered for the southwest Pacific are not manifest or consistent across all clusters.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years

2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In a recent study, Balaji et al (2018) also indicated that there is a 34% rise in the frequency and also a 37% rise in duration of VSCS category in the NIO region based on the 1997-2014 period dataset. A significant eastward shift was also noted in TC genesis locations in the BOB region during post-monsoon seasons of this period-which tends to enhance the vulnerability for the coastal regions of Bangladesh (see also Rao et al 2019).…”

Section: Historical Changesmentioning

confidence: 82%

Extreme Storms

Vellore

Deshpande

Priya

et al. 2020

Assessment of Climate Change Over the Indian Region

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Numerous examples of Southern Hemisphere TC activity analysis (including the South Pacific) using historical cyclone track data exist in recently published scientific literature (e.g., Magee, Verdon-Kidd, Diamond, & Kiem 2017;Bell, Chand, & Turville 2020;Chand et al 2019; (Ramsay, Camargo, & Kim, 2012); Magee, Lorrey, Kiem, & Colyvas 2020;Sharma, Verdon-Kidd, & Magee 2020, 2018Zhao, Zhan, Wang, & Xu 2018). Also, many recent studies using TC track data have been conducted in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., Bell et al 2020;Bhaskar Rao, Srinivas, & Satyanarayana 2019;Ge & Colle 2019;Kelly et al 2018;Liu, Pan, Huang, Zheng, & He 2019;Zhang, Zhang, Shi, & Yao 2020). However, while historical records of TC tracks as recorded by geo-spatial location has the potential to yield new insight into TC behaviour, the body of research into TC track spatial geometry and curvature and the evolution of these characteristics post genesis is far less prevalent (Sharma, Magee, & Verdon-Kidd 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Location, Area, Curvature and Temporal Trends of Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Tracks, Over 50 Years

Miller

Silva

Strauss

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) with genesis in the Coral Sea, often near the east coast of Australia, present significant hazards to coastal regions in their surroundings. There has, therefore, been significant recent efforts to extract information from records of their historical tracks in order to help predict their future behaviour in the light of a changing climate. In this study, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) database of TC tracks over the last fifty years were grouped based on K-means clustering of the maximum wind-weighted centroids. Track shape variance and track curvature (sinuosity) were assessed. Three well defined clusters of TC tracks were identified, and the results showed predominant directions of TC movement by cluster. Track sinuosity was shown to increase from east to west. Only one cluster showed a statistically significant trend (decreasing) in TC frequency. The concept of TC power dissipation index (PDI) was introduced, revealing that two of the clusters have diverging trends for PDI post 2004. The location of cyclone maximum intensity (LMI) was trended, and only one cluster showed a statistically significant trend (towards the equator) for LMI. All these findings demonstrated a clear variance in risk between the clusters and suggests that this method of cluster analysis is a useful and productive complementary tool when establishing future impacts of TCs - the method identifies divergent TC characteristics and trends at a finer scale (cluster) level which then aids in assigning specific and differing TC risk mitigation strategies to different areas of the Australian east coast.

show abstract

Trends in the genesis and landfall locations of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal in the current global warming era

Cited by 11 publications

References 13 publications

Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years

Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years

Extreme Storms

Location, Area, Curvature and Temporal Trends of Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Tracks, Over 50 Years

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About