Trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity in Australia between 1985 and 2008

Abstract

Background: Popular media, health experts and researchers talk about a paediatric 'obesity epidemic' with exponentially increasing rates of obesity and overweight. However, some recent reports suggest that prevalence may have plateaued. This study examined trends in the prevalence of Australian childhood overweight and obesity since 1985. Specifically, it aimed to determine whether there have been (a) overall increases in average body mass index (BMI), (b) differential patterns of change within age groups and (c) increases in BMI within each weight-status category. Method: Forty-one Australian studies of childhood weight status conducted between 1985 and 2008 were reviewed. The studies included data on 264 905 Australians aged 2-18 years, with raw data being available on 70 758 children (27%). Children were classified as overweight or obese based on BMI using the criteria of Cole et al. (BMJ, 2000). The prevalence estimates were adjusted for age and sex, and plotted against measurement year using Lowess plots and two-linear-segment models. Where raw data were available, BMI z-scores (UK 1990 standard) were plotted against measurement year for all children and children in various age groups. Lowess plots and two-linear-segment models were used to assess secular trends in BMI z-scores pre-and post-1996 within age, gender and weight-status categories. Results: There has been a plateau, or only slight increase, in the percentage of boys and girls classified as overweight or obese, with almost no change over the last 10 years. In boys and girls, prevalence rates have settled around 21-25% for overweight and obesity together, and 5-6% for obesity alone. Similar trends were found for BMI z-scores. These patterns were fairly consistent across the age span. Within each weight-status category, average BMI has not increased. Conclusions: Although levels of Australian paediatric overweight remain high, the prevalence of overweight and obesity seems to have flattened and has not followed the anticipated exponential trajectory.

Trends in the prevalence of morbid obesity in Australian children and adolescents from 1985 to 2008: what do we know about?

“…They showed that the increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Australian children has slowed and plateaued over the past 10 years. Olds et al 1 reported that the findings were consistent with several recent reports from Australia, Sweden, France, the United States and New Zealand. They failed, however, to comment on a unique study conducted on over half a million male adolescents aged 18 years from Sweden.…”

“…Unfortunately, these interesting analyses have never been replicated, probably because of the fact that the prevalence of morbid obesity in young people is rather low, and consequently large sample sizes are need to address this question. As Olds et al 1 have managed to put together raw data on BMI from 70 758 Australian young people, we encourage the authors to conduct additional analyses to further understand whether the trends reported by Neovius et al 2 are the same in other cohorts. The authors made a first attempt to address this question by examining the mean BMI values within weight-status groups.…”

“…Olds et al 1 recently described the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1985 to 2008 from a metaanalysis of 41 studies conducted in Australian children and adolescents. They showed that the increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Australian children has slowed and plateaued over the past 10 years.…”

Short horizons and obesity futures: Disjunctures between public health interventions and everyday temporalities

“…Importantly for this analysis, the focus of OPAL is explicitly on increasing the proportion of children aged 0e18 years in a healthy weight range. While Olds et al (2010) has suggested that obesity amongst children has recently plateaued in Australia, it remains at a high level and continues to be a focus. As Evans (2010) notes, focussing on children is key to the pre-emptive paradigm as childhood 'becomes unproblematically associated with the future, because of the affective power of childhood to provoke hope (and by equal measure, fear and tragic loss)' (Kraftl, 2008, p. 84, cited in Evans, 2010.…”

Socio-economic differences in diet, physical activity and leisure-time screen use among Scottish children in 2006 and 2010: are we closing the gap?

“…The rise in prevalence of childhood obesity in the 1990s appears to have slowed or reversed in a number of developed countries during the first decade of the 21st century (1)(2)(3) . Data from the Health Survey for England show a rise in the prevalence of obesity in 2-15-year-olds from 11 % in 1995 to 19 % in 2004, followed by a plateau at 15-17 % from 2006 to 2014 (4) .…”