Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998–2035

Abstract

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a serious health concern as it can progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatoma. We investigated past trends in the prevalence of NAFLD and related factors among Korean men and women from 1998 to 2017 and predicted their future prevalence among Korean men. We used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I–VII (KNHANES). NAFLD was defined as a hepatic steatosis index of >36. Subjects with viral hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, cancer, pregnancy, and a habit of drinking ≥30 g alcohol per occasion were excluded. We evaluated the prevalence trends of NAFLD, obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity in each KNHANES wave. For future prevalence predictions, average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were estimated from the joinpoint model. In men, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately 11 percentage points in the past 19 years, reaching 30.7% in wave VII. Prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity also increased. The AAPC of NAFLD prevalence was 2.3% per year, and the estimated NAFLD prevalence in 2030 and 2035 was 39.1% and 43.8%, respectively. The forecasted prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, and high fat intake among Korean men in 2035 was 65.0%, 52.2%, and 23.5%, respectively. The estimated future prevalence of NAFLD and related factors was considerably high in the younger age group (19–45 year). In women, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately three percentage points in the past 19 years; however, this increase was not significant in the multivariate analysis. Public strategies to manage obesity, abdominal obesity, and unhealthy lifestyles are needed to prevent NAFLD.

Protective Effect of Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Resistance Training on Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

“…In addition, due to rapid economic growth and lifestyle changes across society, the prevalence of NAFLD in Asian countries has steadily increased. In particular, NAFLD prevalence in Korea has continuously increased over the past decade given increases in obesity/abdominal obesity, the adoption of sedentary lifestyles, and high fat intake [ 5 ], with meta-analytic estimates indicating a rate of 31% [ 6 ]. Therefore, there has been a growing interest in preventive and therapeutic strategies for NAFLD.…”

Plant‐Based Foods and Their Bioactive Compounds on Fatty Liver Disease: Effects, Mechanisms, and Clinical Application

“…In China, the prevalence of NAFLD has been dramatically increased from 18% to 29% in recent decades [ 4 ]. Similarly, the prevalence of NAFLD has increased by 11% in men and 3% in women in Korea over the past 19 years [ 5 ]. On the other hand, although the abstinence of alcohol intake is the most effective way to prevent AFLD, the truth is, from 2001 to 2016, the total prevalence of alcohol-induced fatty liver increased from 4.3% to 4.7% in the USA [ 6 ].…”

Prevalence trends of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among young men in Korea: A Korean military population-based cross-sectional study

“…Kang et al showed that the prevalence of NAFLD has increased over time (with an annual increase rate of 2.3%), and is predicted to reach 43.8% by 2035. 5 Many studies in Korea have also reported an increase in NAFLD prevalence over time. [23][24][25] Outside Korea, Arshad et al investigated 4,654 young adults (aged 12-29 years) from the United States; they also reached a similar conclusion that the prevalence of NAFLD among individuals aged 18-24 years increased during 2007-2016.…”

“…[2][3][4] A recent study noted that the prevalence of NAFLD in the Korean adult population is rising and is predicted to reach 44% by 2035. 5 This has increased the awareness of the NAFLD risk in the Korean society. NAFLD is defined as the accumulation of fat in the liver in the absence of alcohol consumption.…”