Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events, and number of dry days in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 1955-2009

Méndez‐Lázaro, Pablo; Nieves-Santiango, Alejandro; Miranda-Bermúdez, Julieanne

doi:10.5751/es-06464-190250

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…They report a significant increasing trend for precipitation in the DS only (recalculated to mean daily of 10.032 mm day 21 ). However, Méndez-Lázaro et al (2014) did report that these increasing trends were significant at two of the COOP stations and one other site for 1955-2009 (they only looked at three of the COOP stations). However, although the study does not separate out results by geographic region such as the northeast, they do show pictorially that the wet forest (most of northeastern PR is wet forest) has a possible increasing trend in the 30-yr periods, and the decreasing trends are coming from the moist and dry forests.…”

Section: Past Climate Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-Term Precipitation and Temperature Trends along an Elevation Gradient in Northeastern Puerto Rico

2015

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As is true of many tropical regions, northeastern Puerto Rico is an ecologically sensitive area with biological life that is highly elevation dependent on precipitation and temperature. Climate change has the potential to increase the risk of losing endemic species and habitats. Consequently, it is important to explore the pattern of trends in precipitation and temperature along an elevation gradient. Statistical derivatives of a frequently sampled dataset of precipitation and temperature at 20 sites along an elevation gradient of 1000 m in northeastern Puerto Rico were examined for trends from 2001 to 2013 with nonparametric methods accounting for annual periodic variations such as yearly weather cycles. Overall daily precipitation had an increasing trend of around 0.1 mm day 21 yr 21 . The driest months of the annual dry, early, and late rainfall seasons showed a small increasing trend in the precipitation (around day 21 yr 21 ). There was strong evidence that precipitation in the driest months of each rainfall season increased faster at higher elevations (0.02 mm day 21 more increase for 100-m elevation gain) and some evidence for the same pattern in precipitation in all months of the year but at half the rate. Temperature had a positive trend in the daily minimum (around 0.028C yr 21 ) and a negative trend in the daily maximum whose size is likely an order of magnitude larger than the size of the daily minimum trend. Physical mechanisms behind the trends may be related to climate change; longer-term studies will need to be undertaken in order to assess the future climatic trajectory of tropical forests.

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Section: Past Climate Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-Term Precipitation and Temperature Trends along an Elevation Gradient in Northeastern Puerto Rico

2015

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“…The spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall distribution over San Juan are complex. A positive trend of increasing rainfall has been observed in the city over the past 50 years, with an intensification in monthly rainfall during the winter months of January and February, which are historically drier, and an increase in severe rainfall episodes (> 78 mm in 24 h) during the spring (April) and summer (June-August) months (Méndez-Lázaro et al 2014). Ramos González (2014) calculated that 26.4% of San Juan's area consists of tree cover, representing approximately 3400 ha.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 (OFCM 2005): low (< 2.5 mm/h), moderate (2.5 to 7.6 mm/h), and heavy (> 7.6 mm/h)). This threshold for heavy intensity is conservative relative to the value of 78 mm/d (equivalent to an average of 3.25 mm/h) reported for severe rainfall events in San Juan by Méndez-Lázaro et al (2014). Replicates within tree type were introduced in the models as a block effect, and tree type and SI max were introduced as treatment effects, assuming there were no interactions between the blocks and treatments.…”

Section: Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall interception by six urban trees in San Juan, Puerto Rico

et al. 2018

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Rainfall interception is an important part of the urban hydrological cycle. Understanding is limited about the role of urban trees and other vegetation in the interception process. This study quantified interception losses by six trees in the Caribbean coastal city of San Juan, Puerto Rico, three representing a broadleaf evergreen, and three representing a broadleaf deciduous species. Rainfall was partitioned into throughfall for 13 storms to compare the results between tree types. Total rainfall ranged from 2.9 to 72.4 mm, and storm duration spanned 1 h to several days. Six of the storms analyzed were characterized by maximum hourly intensity rainfall rates categorized as heavy (> 7.6 mm/h). Strong northeasterly winds brought rain in sustained gusts up to 35 km/ h. Average interception losses totaled 19.7% for both tree types, 22.7% for the deciduous trees, and 16.7% for the evergreen trees. Throughfall exceeded 90% of total rainfall for each of the six trees on one or more occasions, and heavy intensity storms produced negative interception losses in one individual. The effect of tree type on interception was significant for storms of low and moderate intensity, but not heavy intensity. Differences in interception losses between storms of similar intensity and between the two tree types were influenced by leaf area and wind. Results suggest that individual urban tree canopies function as spatio-temporally dynamic storage reservoirs whose interception capacity can vary as micro-meteorological conditions change. These findings help advance understanding about interception processes in humid tropical urban settings.

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“…Recent studies have shown increasing trends in precipitation (using short‐ and long‐term data) in both urban and natural environments (Méndez‐Lázaro et al., ; Van Beusekom et al., ). In addition, Puerto Rico is experiencing an increase in the occurrence of extreme heat events (Méndez‐Lázaro et al., ; Méndez‐Tejeda, ) and extreme floods associated to tropical cyclones (Hernández Ayala et al., ) that may impact ecological processes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation across river channels in demographic dynamics of a riparian herb with threatened status: management and conservation implications

Pérez

Meléndez‐Ackerman

Monsegur-Rivera

2019

American J of Botany

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Premise Gesneria pauciflora is a rare, threatened plant in riparian forests. Periodic disturbances, expected in this habitat, could influence demographic dynamics on plant populations, yet their impact may not be the same across the watershed. We hypothesized that differences in disturbances between the main channel and tributaries may lead to spatial dissimilarities in population growth rate (λ), structure, and fecundity. Methods In the Maricao River Watershed in Puerto Rico, 1277 plants were tagged and monitored for 1.5 years. Every 6 months, we measured plant size and recorded survival, fecundity, and appearance of seedlings. These variables were used in integral projection models to assess the population status of G. pauciflora. Results Plants in the main channel were smaller but more likely to flower and fruit than those in the tributaries. Overall mortality was greater in the main channel and greater during the rainy season. At both sites, λ ranged from 0.9114 to 0.9865, and survival/growth of larger plants had a greater effect on λ (>0.90) regardless of site. Conclusions Values for population growth rates suggest that G. pauciflora is declining across the watershed. Higher mortality rates in the main channel (more‐perturbed sites) might drive G. pauciflora to reproduce at smaller sizes, while tributaries (less‐perturbed sites) might be better for growth and lead to larger plant sizes. Extreme climatic events are expected to increase in the Caribbean and might decrease the population if the population is left unmanaged. Management strategies that reduce the time plants require to reach larger sizes might be necessary to increase λ, and reintroduction using cuttings might be a possible solution.

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Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events, and number of dry days in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 1955-2009

Cited by 17 publications

References 26 publications

Short-Term Precipitation and Temperature Trends along an Elevation Gradient in Northeastern Puerto Rico

Short-Term Precipitation and Temperature Trends along an Elevation Gradient in Northeastern Puerto Rico

Rainfall interception by six urban trees in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Variation across river channels in demographic dynamics of a riparian herb with threatened status: management and conservation implications

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