For much of the twentieth century, parents in the United States with two children of the same sex were more likely to have a third child than were parents with one son and one daughter, that is, there was an effect of the sex of previous children on the occurrence of a third birth. Using multiple cycles of the Current Population Survey and National Survey of Family Growth, the authors examine the strength of this effect on both fertility behavior and intentions over multiple decades. Changes in the societal gender system are expected to weaken this pronatalist effect in recent periods. Consistent with this expectation, there has been some attenuation of the effect of sex composition of previous children on the third birth, suggesting declining salience of children's gender for parents.Along and fruitful sociological tradition links demographic differences and changes to institutional structure and change. For example, Durkheim's ([1897] 1951) classic study linked differential suicide rates to institutional differences between Protestants and Catholics. Likewise, differential child mortality for boys and girls and unusual sex ratios among children provide evidence of differential treatment of children, even when indigenous people claim that it does not exist (Dyson and Moore 1983;Johansson and Nygren 1991). Racial and gender inequality in the United States are tracked by demographic measures of income inequality (Bianchi and Spain 1986; Farley and Allen 1987) and by measures of segregation in housing or occupations (Jacobs 1989;Massey and Denton 1993). The unobtrusiveness and behavioral basis of demographic indicators are important strengths: Although attitudinal surveys suggest respondents' views may be changing, behavioral data provide an assessment less influenced by normative response bias.The current study fits in this tradition. Focusing on data spanning the last 40 years, we ask whether the desire to have both a daughter and a son has disappeared, indicating the basic equivalence, or full substitutability, of sons and daughters. Such a finding would provide strong evidence of emerging gender indifference among parents and clear evidence of greater gender equality in U.S. society.The current study also contributes to a demographic literature that links preferences for sons, daughters, or particular combinations of sons and daughters to fertility levels. More specifically, strong desires for particular sex compositions of children can substantially increase fertility. In the absence of sex preselection, Bongaarts and Potter (1983) show that if couples bear children until they have at least one son, then they will have an average of Direct correspondence to Michael S. Pollard, Department of Sociology, Duke University, Box 90088, Durham, NC 27708-0088, (mpollard@soc.duke.edu).
NIH Public Access
Author ManuscriptAm Sociol Rev. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2010 April 20.
NIH-PA Author ManuscriptNIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript 1.94 births. If couples stop having children only ...