Trends in volcano seismology: 2010 to 2020 and beyond

Abstract

Volcano seismology has been fundamental to our current understanding of crustal magma migration and eruption. The increasing availability of portable seismic networks with the creative use of seismic sources and ambient noise has led to a better understanding of the volcanic structure of many volcanoes and is producing increasingly detailed images of the volcanic subsurface. The past decade (2010-2020) has seen advances in our understanding of seismic sources under and surrounding volcanoes through precise locations, and through analysis of source mechanisms from seismic signals that are more varied and smaller in magnitude, reaching beyond traditional techniques. In tandem with continued research on fundamental physics-based understanding of volcano-seismic sources, new advances in computational analyses including machine learning methods will push our understanding of volcanic processes into the future. Incorporation of multidisciplinary geophysical observations (especially infrasound) has become commonplace, and our understanding of infrasound propagation and sources will feed back into our ability to monitor ongoing eruptions and surficial mass movements. Open-source codes will permit widespread evaluation and adoption of new methodologies for volcano-seismic analysis and inversion. Combined with quantitative and conceptual source models using improved structural constraints, these new methodologies will better characterize the range of volcano-seismic signal evolution scenarios and hold promise for creating better short-term forecasts. Finally, permanent instrumentation is available on an expanding range of volcanoes, and open data policies are increasingly making these data available to the scientific community in near real time.

A look ahead to the next decade at US volcano observatories

“…1a ). The coming decade will see continued expansion and modernization of real-time monitoring networks and application of new geophysical, gas, and other instruments during crises (e.g., Power et al 2020 ; Shiro et al 2021 ; Thelen et al 2022 ). Expanded monitoring also extends to remote sensing tools including UAS.…”

Volcanic Early Warning Using Shannon Entropy: Multiple Cases of Study

“…Volcanic eruptions impact significantly on the Earth and, in particular, on humanity, since more than 14% of the world population (more than 1 billion people) lives under the direct threat of the consequences of volcanic eruptions (Freire et al., 2019). Today, society is increasingly demanding efficient early warning protocols (e.g., W. A. Thelen et al., 2022) that are sufficiently long to allow for evacuations and/or other defense protocols, but short enough to not lose effectiveness and credibility (Whitehead & Bebbington, 2021). Forecasting volcanic eruptions relies on the ability to identify physical and chemical changes in the volcanic system based on the analysis of geophysical and geochemical time series, and in the successful implementation of such data analysis frameworks for pattern recognition in real‐ or quasi‐real‐time (e.g., Ardid et al., 2022; Caudron et al., 2020; Dempsey et al., 2020; Girona et al., 2019, 2021; Manga et al., 2017; McKee et al., 2021a, 2021b; Sparks, 2003; Sparks et al., 2012).…”

“…Today, society is increasingly demanding efficient early warning protocols (e.g., W. A. Thelen et al, 2022) that are sufficiently long to allow for evacuations and/or other defense protocols, but short enough to not lose effectiveness and credibility (Whitehead & Bebbington, 2021). Forecasting volcanic eruptions relies on the ability to identify physical and chemical changes in the volcanic system based on the analysis of geophysical and geochemical time series, and in the successful implementation of such data analysis frameworks for pattern recognition in real-or quasi-real-time (e.g.,…”

Deep Long‐Period Earthquakes at Akutan Volcano From 2005 to 2017 Better Track Magma Influxes Compared to Volcano‐Tectonic Earthquakes

“…(2018) also found that between 1989 and 2017, Alaska Volcano Observatory’s (AVO) forecasting success rate for certain types of volcanoes for example, those with short repose time (<15 years) or small eruption size (Volcanic Explosivity Index of 2 or less) is <20%. Therefore, further advances in our understanding of how seismic activity evolves through eruption cycles and relate to various volcanic and magmatic processes at different volcanoes are crucial for improving our ability to forecast eruptions (Thelen et al., 2022).…”