Trends of climate change indices in some Mexican cities from 1980 to 2010

García-Cueto, O. Rafael; Santillán-Soto, Néstor; López-Velázquez, Ernesto; Reyes-López, Jaime Alonso; Cruz-Sotelo, Samantha E.; Ojeda‐Benítez, Sara

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2620-4

Cited by 16 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 62 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…13; Jones et al ., ). In Mexico for example, only few studies have focused on temperature (e.g., Peralta‐Hernández et al ., ; Gutiérrez‐Ruacho et al ., ; García‐Cueto et al ., ; ; López‐Díaz et al ., ; Cruz‐Rico et al ., ; Alvarez‐Olguin and Escalante‐Sandoval, ) and precipitation (Cavazos et al ., ; Arriaga‐Ramirez and Cavazos, ; Martinez‐Lopez et al ., ) trends using station data in some regions of the country. Increases of extreme summer precipitation in the North American monsoon (NAM) region have been associated with the intensification of tropical cyclones (Cavazos et al ., ; Arriaga‐Ramirez and Cavazos, ) and the negative phase of the AMO (Curtis, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX‐CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain

Cavazos

Luna‐Niño

Cerezo‐Mota

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An intercomparison of three regional climate models (RCMs) (PRECIS‐HadRM3P, RCA4, and RegCM4) was performed over the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX)—Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico (CAM) domain to determine their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation trends during 1980–2010. Particular emphasis was given to the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid‐summer drought (MSD) regions. The three RCMs show negative (positive) temperature (precipitation) biases over the mountains, where observations have more problems due to poor data coverage. Observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA‐Interim show a generalized warming over the domain. The most significant warming trend (≥0.34°C/decade) is observed in the NAM, which is moderately captured by the three RCMs, but with less intensity; each decade from 1970 to 2016 has become warmer than the previous ones, especially during the summer (mean and extremes); this warming appears partially related to the positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). CRU, GPCP, and CHIRPS show significant decreases of precipitation (less than −15%/decade) in parts of the southwest United States and northwestern Mexico, including the NAM, and a positive trend (5–10%/decade) in June–September in eastern Mexico, the MSD region, and northern South America, but longer trends (1950–2017) are not statistically significant. RCMs are able to moderately simulate some of the recent trends, especially in winter. In spite of their mean biases, the RCMs are able to adequately simulate inter‐annual and seasonal variations. Wet (warm) periods in regions affected by the MSD are significantly correlated with the +AMO and La Niña events (+AMO and El Niño). Summer precipitation trends from GPCP show opposite signs to those of CRU and CHIRPS over the Mexican coasts of the southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba, possibly due to data limitations and differences in grid resolutions.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX‐CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain

Cavazos

Luna‐Niño

Cerezo‐Mota

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The climate variability in this region is partially modulated by the intensity of the Caribbean low‐level jet (CLLJ) and easterly waves (e.g., Wang, 2007; Méndez and Magaña, 2010). Studies of extreme precipitation in Mexican cities show positive trends, particularly in large cities of central and northeastern Mexico (García‐Cueto et al ., 2018; Pita‐Diaz and Ortega‐Gaucin, 2020). These regional studies are dispersed efforts to evaluate extreme precipitation events, but there is a lack of evaluations in all Mexico.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of daily extreme and non‐extreme rainfall indices and intercomparison with different gridded data sets over Mexico and the southern United States

Colorado-Ruiz

Cavazos

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Trends of 15 extreme and non‐extreme daily rainfall indices for Mexico and the southern United States are analyzed for the extended boreal winter (November–March) and summer (June–October) during 1981–2010. The analysis includes gridded observations (CHIRPS and Livneh), reanalyses (ERA5, ERA‐Interim, MERRA2, and CFSR), the regional climate model RegCM4.7 (forced by ERA‐Interim), and four general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 (HadGEM2‐ES, CNRM‐CM5, MPI‐ESM‐MR, and GFDL‐ESM2M). The domain is divided into 13 regions with similar seasonal rainfall patterns according to the k‐means algorithm applied to CHIRPS monthly precipitation, as a reference. Gridded observations and reanalyses (O&R) show similar regional annual cycles and metrics of precipitation. The two observational data sets show the largest differences in the magnitude of some indices in the wettest region (southeastern Mexico) and in the monsoon. During summer, O&R show positive significant trends in extreme rainfall indices in regions commonly affected by tropical cyclones (southern Baja California Peninsula, northeastern Mexico, and the southeastern United States), while negative significant trends of seasonal accumulation of rainfall are seen in the Mediterranean Californias and the Sonoran Desert region. There is an agreement among most data sets that the frequency and intensity of extreme winter precipitation indices have declined in northwest Mexico and the southwestern United States, but trends are not statistically significant, while southeastern Mexico shows significant increases in 5‐days accumulation (rx5d). ERA5 followed by MERRA2 show the best performance. RegCM4.7 reproduces the annual cycle of precipitation in most of the regions and captures the main trend signals especially in winter, but it has difficulties in reproducing the summer interannual variability of few indices. The GCMs tend to overestimate (underestimate) the annual cycle of precipitation and the median values of extreme indices in the driest (wettest) regions. They are not able to capture the regional trends of the indices.

show abstract

“…The station of this study that was closest to the Apatlaco River sub-basin was Milpa Alta, south of Mexico City and very close to the north of Apatlaco. The authors of [80] mentioned that the behavior of the indices, particularly those related to surface temperature, was radically different from those found in the rest of the country. They attributed the negative trends in several of the temperature indices in Mexico City to the increase in air pollution and the continuous emissions from the Popocatépetl volcano.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…On the other hand, [80] reported an analysis of various temperature and precipitation indices for 14 urban stations in Mexico. The station of this study that was closest to the Apatlaco River sub-basin was Milpa Alta, south of Mexico City and very close to the north of Apatlaco.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Climate of a Small Basin in Central Mexico

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

One of the main current challenges is detecting changes in the climate at the regional level. The present study tried to address this issue by looking for some influence of large-scale climate oscillations on the climate of a small and complex topography basin in Central Mexico. We collected temperature and precipitation data from 44 climate stations within an area of up to 20 km around the Apatlaco River sub-basin (~30 km south of Mexico City) during the period 1950–2013. Posteriorly, quality analysis and homogenization of the climate databases were performed by using the Climatol algorithm. We analyzed the trend of five ETCCDI climate indices through several statistical tests. Finally, we calculated simple Pearson correlations of those indices with four climate oscillation indices that have affected Mexico’s climate in the recent past. The results revealed that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation had a clear influence on four of the five indices analyzed in the study area. The summer days and the extreme maximum and minimum temperatures accounted for a small increase in the temperature of the middle east (urban) basin compared to the middle west (rural), which could be a manifestation of the heat island effect or the difference in soil type (and therefore albedo) of the two zones. As expected, the midsummer drought effect predominated in most of the sub-basin, with only the uppermost part showing monsoon-type precipitation during a typical year.

show abstract

Trends of climate change indices in some Mexican cities from 1980 to 2010

Cited by 16 publications

References 62 publications

Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX‐CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain

Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX‐CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain

Trends of daily extreme and non‐extreme rainfall indices and intercomparison with different gridded data sets over Mexico and the southern United States

Potential Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Climate of a Small Basin in Central Mexico

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About