Trends of Hydroclimatic Intensity in Colombia

Abstract

Prediction of precipitation changes caused by global climate change is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity. To advance, we look at the record of all available rain gauges in Colombia and at the CHIRPS database to estimate trends in essential variables describing precipitation, including HY-INT, an index of the hydrologic cycle’s intensity. Most of the gauges and cells do not show significant trends. Moreover, the signs of the statistically significant trends are opposite between the two datasets. Satisfactory explanation for the discrepancy remains open. Among the CHIRPS database’s statistically significant trends, the western regions (Pacific and Andes) tend to a more intense hydrologic cycle, increasing both intensity and mean dry spell length, whereas for the northern and eastern regions (Caribbean, Orinoco, and Amazon), the tendencies are opposite. This dipole in trends suggests different mechanisms: ENSO affects western Colombia more directly, whereas rainfall in the eastern regions depends more on the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Amazon basin dynamics. Nevertheless, there is countrywide accord among gauges and cells with significant increasing trends for annual precipitation. Overall, these observations constitute essential evidence of the need for developing a more satisfactory theory of climate change effects on tropical precipitation.

The importance of continental evaporation for precipitation in Colombia: A baseline combining observations from stable isotopes and modelling moisture trajectories

“…This challenge has been generally addressed with local‐scale management plans and strategies. However, in a region like Northern South America (particularly in Colombia), water, food and energy security (which largely supports the country's economy) depend, almost exclusively, on surface water which in turn is associated with short‐term rainfall generation processes (Álvarez‐Villa et al, 2011; Díaz et al, 2020; Mesa et al, 2021). The connection with the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the Amazon–Andes interactions, and the orographic barrier of the regional Andes are the major drivers of atmospheric circulation and ecological diversity in the country (Espinoza et al, 2020; Hoyos, 2017; Poveda et al, 2014; Sakamoto, 2011).…”

Trend Pattern of Heavy and Intense Rainfall Events in Colombia from 1981–2018: A Trend-EOF Approach

“…On the other hand, the technical study of the evidence of climate change by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) [35] delimits the areas of the country with a tendency to increase precipitation (Caribbean region, Orinoco, middle valleys of the Magdalena and Cauca rivers) and the areas with a tendency to decrease precipitation (insular zone, northeast of the country and the eastern slope of the Eastern Cordillera). Recently, Mesa et al [31] studied hydroclimatic trends at the national level and found positive trends in the North Pacific and the middle valley of Cauca, and negative trends in the eastern slope of the Eastern Cordillera, during 1981-2013, using rainfall stations and CHIRPS dataset. However, only 21% of the rainfall station and 25% of grids from CHIRPS showed significant trends over the country.…”

“…Therefore, Colombia is a country highly susceptible and vulnerable to extreme weather events due to its location, the influence by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the three low-level jets, the Amazon, the topography, and different processes in both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The ENSO in both phases, warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña), is one of the main phenomena that has the greatest effects on the national territory of Colombia [28][29][30][31].…”

“…Considering the complexity to establish the precipitation changes in Colombia, recently, Mesa et al [31] studied the trends of hydroclimatic intensity in Colombia using the record of all available rain gauges in Colombia and the CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation) database and estimated trends in the main variables that describe the precipitation, including an index of the hydrologic cycle's intensity. However, the results showed that neither the existing records of precipitation in the rain gauge network of Colombia nor the CHIRPS dataset shows a clear signal of statistically significant trends.…”

The Importance of Continental Evaporation for Precipitation in Colombia: A Baseline Combining Observations from Stable Isotopes and Modeling Moisture Trajectories

“…This challenge has been generally addressed with local-scale management plans and strategies. However, in a region like Northern South America (particularly in Colombia), water, food and energy security (which largely supports the country's economy) depend, almost exclusively, on surface water, which in turn is associated with short-term rainfall generation processes (Álvarez-Villa, Vélez, & Poveda, 2011;Díaz, Saurral, & Vera, 2020;Mesa, Urrea, & Ochoa, 2021). In addition, Colombia is one of the most biodiverse regions in the world (Myers, Mittermeier, Mittermeier, Da Fonseca, & Kent, 2000;Churchill, 2009;Bruijnzeel, Scatena, & Hamilton, 2011;Herzog & Kattan, 2011;Ehrendorfer, 2013;Hutter, Lambert, & Wiens, 2017;Hoorn, Perrigo, & Antonelli, 2018;Bax & Francesconi, 2019).…”