Trends, Variability, and Drivers of Flash Droughts in the Contiguous United States

Lesinger, Kyle; Tian, Di

doi:10.1029/2022wr032186

Cited by 18 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…While there have been many studies advancing flash drought detection methods and mapping flash drought occurrence globally (e.g., Christian et al, 2021;Lesinger & Tian, 2022;Qing et al, 2022;Yuan et al, 2023), much less empirical evidence has been collected on the interacting impacts of flash droughts on social systems (Bachmair et al, 2016;Otkin et al, 2022;Walker & van Loon, 2023). Direct impacts of conventional drought can include reduced water levels, soil moisture, vegetation health, and productivity, all of which can lead to cascading indirect social and economic impacts, which are buffered or exacerbated by a population's or an individual's sensitivity (Kohl & Knox, 2016;Savelli et al, 2022;Wilhite et al, 2007).…”

Section: Compound and Cascading Impacts Of Flash Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar to caveats associated with global‐scale flash drought analysis, large variability can exist between climatological studies, with differences attributed to the flash drought identification method and the variables and dataset used for analysis (Osman et al, 2021). However, studies have consistently shown the highest frequency of flash drought over central CONUS (Chen et al, 2019; Christian et al, 2019a; Lesinger & Tian, 2022; Osman et al, 2022), most frequently in the middle of the warm season, due to increased evaporative demand and vegetation water requirements (Chen et al, 2019; Christian et al, 2019b; Otkin et al, 2021). CONUS‐wide, the peak timing for flash drought occurrence varies, with flash droughts more likely in the spring and early summer in the west, and more likely in the fall for the east (Christian et al, 2019b; Otkin et al, 2021).…”

Section: Flash Drought Climatological Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flash drought: A state of the science review

Christian,

Hobbins,

Hoell

et al. 2024

WIREs Water

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In the two decades, since the advent of the term “flash drought,” considerable research has been directed toward the topic. Within the scientific community, we have actively forged a new paradigm that has avoided a chaotic evolution of conventional drought but instead recognizes that flash droughts have distinct dynamics and, particularly, impacts. We have moved beyond the initial debate over the definition of flash drought to a centralized focus on the triad of rapid onset, drought development, and associated impacts. The refinement toward this general set of principles has led to significant progress in determining key variables for monitoring flash drought development, identifying notable case studies, and compiling fundamental physical characteristics of flash drought. However, critical focus areas still remain, including advancing our knowledge on the atmospheric and oceanic drivers of flash drought; developing flash drought‐specific detection indices and monitoring systems tailored to practitioners; improving subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction of these events; constraining uncertainty in flash drought and impact projections; and using social science to further our understanding of impacts, particularly with regard to sectors that lie outside of our traditional hydroclimatological focus, such as wildfire management and food‐security monitoring. Researchers and stakeholders working together on these critical topics will assure society is resilient to flash drought in a changing climate.This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes

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Section: Compound and Cascading Impacts Of Flash Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Flash Drought Climatological Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flash drought: A state of the science review

Christian,

Hobbins,

Hoell

et al. 2024

WIREs Water

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“…the Poyang Lake and the Dongting Lake, reached to the lowest in early August, approximately three to four months earlier than usual. The sudden outbreak and rapid development of drought conditions in 2022 are unprecedented in China, which is more like a flash drought evolves (Otkin et al 2018, Yuan et al 2019, Liu et al 2020b, 2020c, Mohammadia et al 2022, Lesinger and Tian 2022. The annual statistics suggested that the 2022 drought in the Yangtze River Basin has affected 0.6 million ha of cropland, and the direct economic losses were estimated to be 7.5 billion USD.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The patterns, magnitude, and drivers of unprecedented 2022 mega-drought in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Liu,

Yuan,

Zhu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The Yangtze River Basin in China was hit by an unprecedented extreme drought in 2022. Such a record-breaking event is jointly driven by a few outlier factors and shows abnormal phenomena. The exceptionality of this drought event cannot be fully described by any individual indicator. Therefore, we performed this comprehensive study to highlight the exceptionality of 2022 Yangtze River Basin drought. We evaluated three drought characteristics: onset period (the time interval of moisture condition from normal to extreme), intensity, and affected area and their compound features. Additionally, historical climatology (1950–2022) and four past severe events are used as references. Lastly, we investigated the driving mechanisms of this event from synoptic perspective. Our results indicate the 2022 drought ranked as the most severe event in history. The recurrence interval of the 2022 Yangtze River drought is estimated to be 120–400 years by considering individual and combined drought characteristics. Behind the scenes, the synoptic environment triggered the abnormally high temperatures and abrupt alteration of precipitation, which is the main driver of the event. The 2022 Yangtze River drought is an archetype of an event characterized by both rapid intensification over time and space, which is indicative for drought monitoring and early warning in a warming climate.

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“…EDDI was developed (McEvoy et al, 2016;Hobbins et al, 2016) to measure the signal of wildfire danger, floods, and droughts. EDDI has been tested in capturing the flash drought at global scale (Hoffmann et al, 2021) and over the CONUS (Lesinger and Tian, 2022) and its interactions with teleconnections (i.e., El Niño-Southern Oscillation) in Australia (Parker et al, 2021). There are also some efforts to capture agricultural drought in China (Yao et al, 2018;Wu et al, 2021), South Korea (Won et al, 2018), and the contiguous US (McEvoy et al, 2016;Pendergrass et al, 2020) for major agricultural crops like corn, winter wheat, and soybean (Goble et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Snow Drought a Messenger for the Upcoming Severe Drought Period? A Case Study in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Yeșilköy¹,

Baydaroğlu²,

Demir³

2023

Preprint

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The exacerbation of floods and the extension of droughts, attributed to climate change and other human-induced factors, are posing a substantial risk to communities by causing water scarcity and insecurity. The significance of safeguarding water resources and managing them is increasingly gaining prominence. Snow is an efficient source of water for recharging groundwater compared to rainfall. This is attributed to its gradual melting process and capacity to infiltrate the soil, thereby providing sustenance to the groundwater. Thus, snow drought can be considered a major contributing factor to the issue of water scarcity. The objective of this study was to investigate the evolution of snow drought over the period spanning from 1980 to 2022, as well as its impact on agricultural drought across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). This research employed the AgERA5 reanalysis gridded data at surface level with a spatial resolution of 0.1°, obtained from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to assess the snow drought. An analysis is conducted for comparison between the spatial estimations of snow drought in the UMBR and two other drought indicators, namely the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) and water deficit amounts. The effects of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena on the UMRB as well as the results of the summer drought conditions were reviewed. The results point to two important findings. The former is that the snow-drought-affected zones show an increasing trend from the past to the present in the UMRB. The latter is that severe snow droughts in the winter of a water year trigger severe agricultural droughts in the summer months of the same water year. It is seen that monitoring snow droughts is as essential as following rainfall regimes in the planning of water resources, agricultural production, and irrigation methods.

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Trends, Variability, and Drivers of Flash Droughts in the Contiguous United States

Cited by 18 publications

References 98 publications

Flash drought: A state of the science review

Flash drought: A state of the science review

The patterns, magnitude, and drivers of unprecedented 2022 mega-drought in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Is Snow Drought a Messenger for the Upcoming Severe Drought Period? A Case Study in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

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