Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote

Campbell, James E.; Wink, K.

doi:10.1177/1532673x9001800301

Cited by 88 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…A number of authors have used some measure of how long a party has been in the White House without a break to help explain votes for president (Abramowitz, 1988;Campbell and Wink, 1990;Haynes and Stone, 1994;Fackler and Lin, 1994). For the work here, five versions of a duration variable, denoted DUR, were tried.…”

Section: An Additional Incumbency Variablementioning

confidence: 99%

Econometrics and Presidential Elections

Fair

1996

Journal of Economic Perspectives

142

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A t the beginning of the 1970s, Kramer (1971) wrote an influential paper on voting behavior, which concluded that votes depend on economic events in the year of the election. My interest in this topic was piqued when Orley Ashenfelter in June 1971 used a Kramer-type equation and my then-current prediction of the 1972 growth rate of real output to predict that Nixon would win the U.S. presidential election with a little over 60 percent of the vote. Nixon actually received 61.8 percent.1 I began work on a model of how economic events affect voting behavior that I argued encompassed the theories of Kramer (1971), Stigler (1973, who believed that well-informed voters would look back more than a year, and the earlier theory of Downs (1957). This work was eventually published in Fair (1978). The general theory behind the model is that a voter evaluates the past economic performances of the competing parties and votes for the party that provides the highest expected future utility. Within the context of the model, one can test both how far back voters look in evaluating the economic performances of the parties and what economic variables they use in their evaluations.

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Section: An Additional Incumbency Variablementioning

confidence: 99%

Econometrics and Presidential Elections

Fair

1996

Journal of Economic Perspectives

142

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“…Según varios estudios, las encuestas próximas a las elecciones (como media tres meses antes de ellas) facilitan los datos más fiables para una predicción electoral (Traugott, 2001(Traugott, , 2005Pickup y Johnston, 2008;Panagopoulos, 2009c;Alaminos, 1994). Cuanto más antiguos son los datos, la precisión disminuye (Campbell y Wink, 1990;Gelman y King, 1993;Campbell, 1996), siendo útiles para evaluar las tendencias observadas, pero contribuyendo en menor grado al estado actual. La comparación entre ambos métodos para establecer una mejor o peor capacidad predictiva (encuestas próximas a las elecciones o series temporales) ha establecido la importancia de la complementariedad entre ellas (Brown y Chappell, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Las dinámicas del voto retrospectivo en España (1996-2017)

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2018

Tendencias

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Tras introducir brevemente algunos conceptos explicativos del voto desde el punto de vista de su influencia a largo, medio y corto plazo, se efectúa un análisis desde el enfoque del modelo de voto retrospectivo. Se analizan cuatro series del banco de datos del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, con la valoración de la gestión/actuación del Partido Popular y del Partido Socialista Obrero Español, así como las series de intención de voto a los dos partidos. Del análisis se concluye la estrecha relación existente entre la valoración de la gestión/actuación de ambos partidos con su intención de voto. Las tendencias de declive observadas en la confianza en la gestión/actuación de los dos partidos anticipaban el escenario de crisis del bipartidismo de 2015, sugiriendo su incorporación como elemento de su «imagen de partido». Así mismo, considerando las dinámicas para los dos partidos, se observa la anomalía que, dentro de la pauta general, representan las elecciones generales de 2004 y 2011. Como estrategia de control de la falacia ecológica de los agregados, se ha efectuado un control en cinco años (1997, 2002, 2007, 2012 y 2017) analizando los microdatos para establecer la relación entre valoración de la gestión/actuación del partido y su intención de voto en la unidad de análisis individual.After briefly introducing some of the explanatory concepts of voting from the point of view of its influence in the long, medium and short term, an analysis is made from the retrospective voting model approach. For the Spanish case, four series of the Centre for Sociological Research database are analysed, with the assessment of the management/performance of the Popular Party and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, as well as the series of voting intention to the two political parties. The analysis concludes the close relationship between the assessment of the management/performance of both political parties with their voting intention. The trends of decline observed in the trust in management/ performance of the two parties anticipated the bipartisan crisis scenario of 2015. Furthermore, considering the dynamics for the two parties, we observe the anomaly that, within the general pattern, represents the general elections of 2004 and 2011. As a strategy to control the ecological fallacy of the aggregates, an analysis has been carried out in five years (1997, 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017) studying the microdata to establish the relationship between management/performance valuation of the party and the voting intention at an individual level.

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“…In evaluating how well preference polls at diff erent points in the election year predicted the vote, Ken Wink and I in 1990 developed the trial-heat and economy forecasting model (Campbell and Wink 1990 ). It built on Michael Lewis-Beck's earlier explorations of preference polls as vote predictors (Lewis-Beck 1985 , 58).…”

Section: The Presidential Election Forecast Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote

Abstract: Once the exclusive province of pundits and pollsters, the arena of election forecasting has been entered by political scientists in recent years (Rosenstone 1983;Rice 1985 Rice , 1986

Cited by 88 publications

References 16 publications

Econometrics and Presidential Elections

Econometrics and Presidential Elections

Las dinámicas del voto retrospectivo en España (1996-2017)

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections

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