Trigger Mechanisms of Gas Hydrate Decomposition, Methane Emissions, and Glacier Breakups in Polar Regions as a Result of Tectonic Wave Deformation

Abstract

Trigger mechanisms are proposed for gas hydrate decomposition, methane emissions, and glacier collapse in polar regions. These mechanisms are due to tectonic deformation waves in the lithosphere–asthenosphere system, caused by large earthquakes in subduction zones, located near the polar regions: the Aleutian arc, closest to the Arctic, and the Antarctica–Chilean and Tonga–Kermadec–Macquarie subduction zones. Disturbances of the lithosphere are transmitted over long distances (of the order of 2000–3000 km and more) at a speed of about 100 km/year. Additional stresses associated with them come to the Arctic and Antarctica several decades after the occurrence of seismic events. On the Arctic shelf, additional stresses destroy the microstructure of metastable gas hydrates located in frozen rocks at shallow depths, releasing the methane trapped in them and leading to filtration and emissions. In West Antarctica, these wave stresses lead to decreases in the adhesions of the covered glaciers with underlying bedrock, sharp accelerations of their sliding into the sea, and fault occurrences, reducing pressure on the underlying rocks containing gas hydrates, which leads to their decomposition and methane emissions.

Large Earthquakes in Subduction Zones around the Polar Regions as a Possible Reason for Rapid Climate Warming in the Arctic and Glacier Collapse in West Antarctica

“…Deformation waves originating from the large earthquake sources in the Aleutian and Kuril-Kamchatka island arcs and arriving at the land areas of the Arctic zone serve as a trigger mechanism for the destruction of the internal structure of gas-saturated lowpermeability sedimentary rocks, leading to an increase in methane emission and a greenhouse effect. It is important to note that there is a clearly visible correlation between the change in the level of the released seismic energy of the Earth and the incremental methane concentration in the atmosphere over the past 40 years, with a some 20-year time shift between these processes, which obviously supports the proposed seismogenic trigger hypothesis of the climate warming [15].…”

“…The question arises whether the observed spatiotemporal correlation between t phase of the maximum release of the Earth's seismic energy in the subduction zones a the onset of a sharp warming in the Polar Regions means the presence of a causal relatio ship between these various natural phenomena? A positive answer to this question w given in [1,15,19,20], where it is assumed that the indicated causal relationship lies in t triggering effect of deformation waves that arise during large earthquakes and travel a speed of about 100 km/year from the sources of these earthquakes towards Polar Regio At such a speed, deformation waves travel a distance of about 2000 km from the Aleuti and North Kuril earthquakes sources to the Arctic shelf and land in about 20 years, whe due to additional stresses, they cause the microstructure fracturing in the onshore lo permeability rocks, which have micropores with trapped free gas, as well as metastab gas hydrate dissociation in the shelf subsea formations. These processes result in the em sion of released methane, which causes warming of the environment due to the gree house effect.…”

Multivariate analysis of long-term climate data in connection with yield, earliness and the problem of global warming

“…Some scientists state that they are caused by industrial activity (and proponents of this viewpoint succeeded in getting three Nobel awards: Peace Prize (Solomon et al, 2007), Prize in Economic Sciences (Nord haus, 2019), and Prize in Physics (Manabe, 2019(Manabe, , 2023). Others interpret the changes as a regular round of natural climatic fluctuations (Usoskin et al, 2014;Lobkovsky et al, 2022;and others).…”

“…There is no consensus among investigators as to whether the recorded climate changes are caused by anthropogenic or natural factors (Ruddiman et al, 2016;Lobkovsky et al, 2022;and others). At last time, the Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes -a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually ac tive Sun (Solanki et al, 2004;Usoskin et al, 2014).…”

Permafrost and Gas Hydrate Response to Ground Warming

“…Two more papers [14,15] discuss models of gas emission in the Arctic. The model of [14] explains explosive gas emissions from shallow permafrost with formation of craters, which is possible at a certain combination of cryological and geological conditions.…”