Trip duration modifies spatial spread of infectious diseases

Park, Andrew

doi:10.1073/pnas.2015730117

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…would not uniformly change spatial transmission patterns [50,51]. For example, studies of urban travel have found that trip duration is associated with the attractiveness of a destination (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread

et al. 2021

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Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations. Further, pathogens with a longer generation time have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread

et al. 2021

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“…Return rate methods have been applied so that all routes are scaled down uniformly 35 or according to the origin 43 , or in the case of Poletto et al 45,46 where return rate was determined functionally according to the degree distribution of the destination. It follows that the duration of trips may depend on the origin and destination location which would suggest that integrating trip duration data would not uniformly change spatial transmission patterns 47,48 . For example, studies of urban travel have found that trip duration is associated with the attractiveness of a destination (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread

Giles

Cummings

Grenfell

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decays as cost of travel increases and higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial distribution of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models imbedded in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations, whereas longer generation time pathogens have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.

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Traffic-Driven Epidemic Spreading in Networks: Considering the Transition of Infection From Being Mild to Severe

Zhang

et al. 2023

IEEE Trans. Cybern.

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Trip duration modifies spatial spread of infectious diseases

Cited by 3 publications

References 15 publications

Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread

Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread

Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread

Traffic-Driven Epidemic Spreading in Networks: Considering the Transition of Infection From Being Mild to Severe

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