Trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination effectiveness in Australia and South Africa: results from a modelling study

Milne, George J.; Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel; Barr, Ian G.; Moyes, Jocelyn; Kahn, Kathleen; Twine, Rhian; Cohen, Cheryl

doi:10.1111/irv.12367

Cited by 18 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Based on those that could be analyzed by HI, viruses isolated in Georgia and worldwide over the 2014-2017 seasons clearly differed antigenically from A/Texas/50/2012, while viruses in 3C.3a, 3C.2a and 3C.2a1 genetic groups appeared more closely related when assessed using post-infection ferret antisera raised against multiple representatives of each group. [37]. Genetic studies of the B/Victoria lineage viruses revealed several substitutions in the HA and NA.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of three influenza seasons in Georgia, 2014–2017

Machablishvili¹,

Chakhunashvili²,

Zakhashvili³

et al. 2018

PLoS ONE

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BackgroundInfluenza epidemiological and virologic data from Georgia are limited. We aimed to present Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) surveillance data and characterize influenza viruses circulating in the country over three influenza seasons.MethodsWe analyzed sentinel site ILI and SARI data for the 2014–2017 seasons in Georgia. Patients’ samples were screened by real-time RT-PCR and influenza viruses isolated were characterized antigenically by haemagglutination inhibition assay and genetically by sequencing of HA and NA genes.Results32% (397/1248) of ILI and 29% (581/1997) of SARI patients tested were positive for influenza viruses. In 2014–2015 the median week of influenza detection was week 7/2015 with B/Yamagata lineage viruses dominating (79%); in 2015–2016—week 5/2016 was the median with A/H1N1pdm09 viruses prevailing (83%); and in 2016–2017 a bimodal distribution of influenza activity was observed—the first wave was caused by A/H3N2 (55%) with median week 51/2016 and the second by B/Victoria lineage viruses (45%) with median week 9/2017. For ILI, influenza virus detection was highest in children aged 5–14 years while for SARI patients most were aged >15 years and 27 (4.6%) of 581 SARI cases died during the three seasons. Persons aged 30–64 years had the highest risk of fatal outcome, notably those infected with A/H1N1pdm09 (OR 11.41, CI 3.94–33.04, p<0.001). A/H1N1pdm09 viruses analyzed by gene sequencing fell into genetic groups 6B and 6B.1; A/H3N2 viruses belonged to genetic subclades 3C.3b, 3C.3a, 3C.2a and 3C.2a1; B/Yamagata lineage viruses were of clade 3 and B/Victoria lineage viruses fell in clade1A.ConclusionIn Georgia influenza virus activity occurred mainly from December through March in all seasons, with varying peak weeks and predominating viruses. Around one third of ILI/ SARI cases were associated with influenza caused by antigenically and genetically distinct influenza viruses over the course of the three seasons.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of three influenza seasons in Georgia, 2014–2017

Machablishvili¹,

Chakhunashvili²,

Zakhashvili³

et al. 2018

PLoS ONE

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“…school, workplace, home, community) and determines each individual's infection status through time. [10][11][12]14 Simulation models create a "virtual world" of individuals whose daily movement, changing contact patterns and disease biology dynamics aim to replicate that of the real-world system in as much detail as data sources permit, such as data from the POLYMOD contact pattern study. 15 We modelled an Australian city, Newcastle in New South Wales.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effectiveness of Social Distancing in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread: a modelling analysis

Milne

Xie

2020

Preprint

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Organisation as a pandemic due to its worldwide spread. The ability of countries to contain and control transmission is critical in the absence of a vaccine. We evaluated a range of social distancing measures to determine which strategies are most effective in reducing the peak daily infection rate, and consequential pressure on the health care system.Methods Using COVID-19 transmission data from the outbreak source in Hubei Province, China, collected prior to activation of containment measures, we adapted an established individual based simulation model of the city of Newcastle, Australia, population 272,409. Simulation of virus transmission in this community model without interventions provided a baseline from which to compare alternative social distancing strategies. The infection history of each individual was determined, as was the time infected. From this model-generated data, the rate of growth in cases, the magnitude of the epidemic peak, and the outbreak duration were obtained.Findings The application of all four social distancing interventions: school closure, workplace non-attendance, increased case isolation, and community contact reduction is highly effective in flattening the epidemic curve, reducing the maximum daily case numbers, and lengthening outbreak duration. These were also found to be effective even after 10 weeks delay from index case arrivals. The most effective single intervention was found to be increasing case isolation, to 100% of children and 90% of adults.

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“…For instance, as influenza B rather tends to infect adolescents and young adults than elderly, the impact might be higher in LMICs which generally have younger populations. An individual-based modeling exercise found that QIV would reduce influenzarelated hospitalizations and deaths by 18% as compared with TIV in a community in South Africa between 2003 and 2013, while this was only 2% in Australia in the same period [68].…”

Section: Expert Commentarymentioning

confidence: 99%

A systematic review of the health economic consequences of quadrivalent influenza vaccination

Boer

Maanen

Damm

et al. 2017

Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research

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International audienceBackground: Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) contain antigens derived from an additional influenza type B virus as compared with currently used trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs). This should overcome a potential reduced vaccine protection due to mismatches between TIV and circulating B viruses. In this study, we systematically reviewed the available literature on health economic evaluations of switching from TIV to QIV.Areas covered: The databases of Medline and Embase were searched systematically to identify health economic evaluations of QIV versus TIV published before September 2016.A total of sixteen studies were included, thirteen cost-effectiveness analyses and three cost-comparisons.Expert commentary: Published evidence on the cost-effectiveness of QIV suggests that switching from TIV to QIV would be a valuable intervention from both the public health and economic viewpoint. However, more research seems mandatory. Our main recommendations for future research include: 1) more extensive use of dynamic models in order to estimate the full impact of QIV on influenza transmission including indirect effects, 2) improved availability of data on disease outcomes and costs related to influenza type B viruses, and 3) more research on immunogenicity of natural influenza infection and vaccination, with emphasis on cross-reactivity between different influenza B viruses and duration of protection

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Trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination effectiveness in Australia and South Africa: results from a modelling study

Cited by 18 publications

References 23 publications

Overview of three influenza seasons in Georgia, 2014–2017

Overview of three influenza seasons in Georgia, 2014–2017

The Effectiveness of Social Distancing in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread: a modelling analysis

A systematic review of the health economic consequences of quadrivalent influenza vaccination

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