Tropical cyclone hazards analysis based on tropical cyclone potential impact index

Abstract

Tropical cyclone, a high energy destructive meteorological system with heavy rainfall and gale triggered massive landslides and windstorms, poses a significant threat to coastal areas. In this paper we have developed a Tropical Cyclone Potential Impact Index (TCPI) based on the air mass trajectories, disaster information, intensity, duration, and frequency of tropical cyclones. We analyzed the spatial pattern and interannual variation of the TCPI over the period 1949-2009, and taking the Super Typhoon Saomai as an example have examined the relationship between the TCPI and direct economic losses, total rainfall, and maximum wind speed. The results reveal that China's TCPI appears to be a weak decreasing trend over the period, which is not significant overall, but significant in some periods. Over the past 20 years, the TCPI decreased in the southern China coastal provinces of Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi, while it increased in the southeastern coastal provinces of Zhejiang, Fujian and Taiwan. The highest values of TCPI are mainly observed in Taiwan, Hainan, the coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian and Zhejiang's southern coast. The TCPI has a good correlation (P=0.01) with direct economic loss, rainfall, and maximum wind speed.

Temporal Analysis for Multi-hazard Risk Assessment of Rice Cultivation in Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Soc Trang, Vietnam

“…First, the eye's locations of tropical cyclones within the 800 km circle were selected. To assess tropical cyclone impact, we used and modified the Tropical Cyclone Potential Index (TCI) which was introduced by (Xiao et al 2011). Then monthly TCI was computed as follows:…”

“…severe tropical storms, typhoons, or hurricanes). Data of tropical cyclones, which were recorded for the period of 1951 to 2019 by the Japan Meteorological Agency, were To assess tropical cyclone impact, we used and modified the Tropical Cyclone Potential Index (TCI) which was introduced by(Xiao et al 2011). Then monthly TCI was computed as follows:…”

Climatology in support of climate risk management

“…Notwithstanding some of the assumptions associated with hurricane risk assessment, a range of studies report on risk assessment methods or risk estimates from numerical or statistical based analyses of hurricane related hazards including hurricane related storm surge in New York (Lin et al 2010) and risk to offshore wind turbines (Rose, 2012), US air force bases (Scheitlin et al, 2011) and the built environment in Florida (Hamid et al, 2011). Examples of methodological developments in hurricane risk assessment include the application of fuzzy mathematical and grey models , improved hurricane track simulations (Rumpf et al, 2009), the development of a risk calculator for estimating wind risk over a range of durations (Malmstadt et al, 2010), construction of a tropical cyclone potential impact index (Xiao et al, 2011), and the integration of a range of data in a GIS framework to produce hurricane risk maps (Poulos, 2010;Taramelli et al, 2010).…”

A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC dataset V1.0)

“…Several different expressions based on the intensity of TCs or on their extreme wind speeds exist and are most popularly used as indicators of the potential risk resulting from TC hazards. Examples include the power dissipation index (Emanuel, 2005) and the hurricane intensity index (Kantha 2006(Kantha , 2013Powell and Reinhold, 2007;Xiao et al, 2011;Peduzzi et al, 2012;Hong et al, 2016;Choun and Kim, 2019;Fang et al, 2020;Liu et al, 2020b). Fundamentally, these indicators express the damage-based risk caused by TC winds.…”