Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis and Forecasting from Satellite Imagery

Dvorak, Vernon F.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1975)103<0420:tciaaf>2.0.co;2

Cited by 689 publications

(464 citation statements)

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“…Otherwise, most intensity observations are based on the Dvorak (1984) technique. Franklin et al (2003) note the uncertainties associated with estimating intensity from aircraft flight level or dropsonde measurements.…”

Section: A Best-track Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

Jones

Cecil

DeMaria

2006

Weather and Forecasting

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The formulation and testing of an enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) using new predictors derived from passive microwave imagery is presented. Passive microwave imagery is acquired for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins between 1995 and 2003. Predictors relating to the inner-core (within 100 km of center) precipitation and convective characteristics of tropical cyclones are derived. These predictors are combined with the climatological and environmental predictors used by SHIPS in a simple linear regression model with change in tropical cyclone intensity as the predictand. Separate linear regression models are produced for forecast intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h from the time of a microwave sensor overpass. Analysis of the resulting models indicates that microwave predictors, which provide an intensification signal to the model when above-average precipitation and convective signatures are present, have comparable importance to vertical wind shear and SSTrelated predictors. The addition of the microwave predictors produces a 2%-8% improvement in performance for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts out to 72 h when compared with an environmental-only model trained from the same sample. Improvement is also observed when compared against the current version of SHIPS. The improvement in both basins is greatest for substantially intensifying or weakening tropical cyclones. Improvement statistics are based on calculating the forecast error for each tropical cyclone while it is held out of the training sample to approximate the use of independent data.

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Section: A Best-track Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

Jones

Cecil

DeMaria

2006

Weather and Forecasting

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“…But as no mention is made of this Atkinson and Holliday WPR in Dvorak (1984), and to avoid confusion for users of the SWIO tropical cyclone operational plan, the WPR included in Dvorak (1984) for use in the western North Pacific (WNP) is referred to as the WNP D-WPR. The use of the WNP D-WPR in the SWIO was adopted following a meeting held by the Tropical Cyclone Committee of the Regional Association 1 (TCC RA1) of the World Meteorological Organization in September 1985.…”

Section: A the Wpr Adopted In The Swiomentioning

confidence: 99%

Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind–Pressure Relationship”

Veerasamy¹

2008

Weather and Forecasting

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In their study on the wind-pressure relationship (WPR) that exists in tropical cyclones, Knaff and Zehr presented results of the use of the Dvorak Atlantic WPR for estimating central pressure and maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones. These show some fairly large departures of estimated central pressure and maximum surface winds from observed values. Based on a study carried out in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO), it is believed that improvements in the use of the Dvorak WPR can be achieved by using the size of a closed isobar (it is the 1004-hPa closed isobar in the SWIO) to determine whether to use the North Atlantic (NA), the western North Pacific (WNP), or a mean of the NA and WNP Dvorak WPR for estimating central pressure and maximum wind speed in tropical cyclones.

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“…CDO has been well known as one of the common cloud features in the early developing TCs (Dvorak, 1975). Gray (1993) noted that convection breaking out was associated with wind surge in the early developing stage of TC.…”

Section: Mesoscale Intense Connective Area (Mica)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Actually, Dvorak (1975) presented several developing models of TCs without CDO. Ritchie and Holland (1997) stressed cooperative interaction between environmental and mesoscale dynamics during a TC formation, in which CDO-related convection appear to not be so important.…”

Section: Summary and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Liu et al (1994) investigated the structure and atmospheric water balance of typhoon Nina through its life cycle including formation and developing stages using data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite. Further, a general model of TC development cloud patterns was presented on the basis of the morphology of numerous TCs cloud features (Dvorak, 1975), in which the central dense overcast (CDO) was noted as one of the remarkable common cloud features in the early developing stage of TCs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Structure and Evolution of Convection within Typhoon Yancy (T9313) in the Early Developing Stage Observed by the Keifu Maru Radar

Mori¹,

Ishigaki²,

Maehira³

et al. 1999

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Typhoon Yancy (T9313), which was in the early gradual developing stage and moved westward over the northwestern Pacific near (19N, 129E), was observed by the Japan Meteorological Agency research vessel Keifu Maru, during 30 August to 1 September 1993. During that period, the circulation center of Yancy approached as close as 80 km to the north of the Keifu Maru. Convection in the major part of Yancy was analyzed using the radar, maritime weather and upper air observation data obtained on the ship and recently available satellite data. Cell echo tracking winds (CETwinds) were estimated and utilized to supplement low level wind data around Yancy.During the early developing stage, an in-concentric structure of Yancy in which a cloud system existed in a southwest quadrant of a lower-level cyclonic circulation (LLCC) of 1500 km scale was transformed to a concentric one through a formation of a central dense overcast ('CDO') in the cloud system. After the establishment of the concentric structure, Yancy began rapid development.Various mesoscale (100-500 km) precipitation features (MPFs) were organized and evolved successively within Yancy. The configurations of the MPFs were changed as the early developing process progressed through four sub-stages. In the initial sub-stage, a large (400 km) echo system (LES) was organized in the southwest quadrant of the LLCC, over which a round cloud system appeared. In the second sub-stage, a long lasting mesoscale intense convective area (MICA) was formed around the northwestern edge of the LES, which was a mesoscale precipitation entity of the 'CDO' in the round cloud system. LLCC appeared to be intensified on a 500 km scale after the formation of MICA. In the third sub-stage, LES and the cloud system evolved into a comma-shaped spiral band with length over 500 km in the intense cyclonic circulation. In the final sub-stage, curvature of the spiral band was increased and an inner near-circular spiral band emerged in the further intensified LLCC. The northern head of the comma-shaped cloud system was encircling the LLCC center. Line systems transversal and longitudinal to lower-level circulation were formed around MICA in the first sub-stage, and in the second sub-stage, respectively.

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Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis and Forecasting from Satellite Imagery

Cited by 689 publications

References 0 publications

Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind–Pressure Relationship”

Structure and Evolution of Convection within Typhoon Yancy (T9313) in the Early Developing Stage Observed by the Keifu Maru Radar

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